Weather Watch: Tropical Trouble Brewing in the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific

What’s Happening in the Atlantic?

The Atlantic Ocean is starting to "wake up" a bit. The National Weather Service (a group that watches the weather for the U.S.) has pointed out two spots where a storm might form:

• One area is out in the open ocean near West Africa.
• Another area is along the Gulf Coast (the coastline near the Gulf of Mexico).

A Rainy Visitor for Florida

A weather system that is not a tropical storm (think: not a hurricane-type storm yet) is expected to slowly form in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow. Here is what it will do:

• Starting today and going into next week, it will bring heavy rain to the west coast of Florida.
• It will make thunderstorms (big rain and lightning storms) more likely across Florida and nearby places.
• The rain will probably fall where it is needed most because the western part of Florida is still very dry (we call this a drought).

Important Point: Early next week, there is a small chance the system drifts over super warm Gulf or ocean water. If that happens, it could turn into a "tropical depression" (a baby version of a hurricane). The National Hurricane Center says the chance is low.

What Do the Computers Think?

Weather scientists use computer "forecast models" (like super-smart guessing games) to predict the weather. Almost all of them agree:

1. The non-tropical low-pressure system will stay in the Gulf.
2. It will drift west or northwest along the Gulf coast.
3. A big "heat-dome" (a blob of hot air parked to the north) will push it along.
4. While over water, there is still a small chance it becomes a tropical depression — we will keep watching!

But most models say the system will get stretched out by strong upper winds (fast winds high in the sky) and just cause messy, stormy weather along the coastal South and Florida.

Important Point: From the northern Gulf Coast through most of Florida and maybe to Georgia and the Carolina coast, get ready for a long stretch of extra storminess. It will be worst from Sunday to Tuesday.

On the Other Side of the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center is also watching a disturbance (a messy area of weather) that left Africa a couple days ago.

• If it wants to become a storm, it has to do it fast.
• It is running into Saharan dust (dry, sandy air from the Sahara Desert) and will soon hit unfriendly upper winds.
• People in the Cabo Verde Islands should watch it, but right now it is no threat to any mainland land.

In the Pacific Ocean

Things are busy on the other side of the map too:

• Elida: This storm is almost a hurricane (a big spinning ocean storm). It will soon hit cooler water and get weak. The only land effect is big waves in Hawaii.
• Fausto: The Hurricane Center drew a big red "watch out" zone where Fausto will probably form. It may get strong, but it will follow Elida and die over cold water.
• Next week, another system will likely travel the same path in the eastern Pacific.

El Niño Update

The weather over the tropics right now looks exactly like what we expect in a July during an El Niño (a natural warming of Pacific Ocean water that changes weather worldwide):

• Unfriendly upper-level winds are protecting Mexico and the Caribbean.
• Saharan dust is stopping storms from forming in the open Atlantic.

This calm middle-of-summer pause is normal. The big question: what happens in about a month when the dust usually goes away? El Niño’s winds will probably still make storm-making harder than normal, but there will be plenty of warm water to keep an eye on.

Important Point: On average, the second named storm of the season shows up on July 17. So by tomorrow, we are "officially" a little behind schedule — but that’s totally fine!

Summary

To wrap it up like a simple story:

• The Atlantic is showing small signs of life with two possible storm spots.
• Florida will get helpful rain and some storms from a Gulf system this week into next.
• A far-away African disturbance is fighting dust and likely won’t threaten land.
• The Pacific has Elida and Fausto, both dying over cold water soon.
• El Niño is keeping things quiet for now, which is normal for July.

FAQ

1. What is a tropical depression?
It is a weak kind of tropical storm — a swirling system over warm ocean water that is not yet strong enough to be called a hurricane.

2. Why is Saharan dust important?
It is dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert in Africa. It flies across the Atlantic and stops storms from forming because storms need moist air to grow.

3. What does El Niño do to hurricanes?
El Niño often creates unfriendly upper winds that make it harder for Atlantic hurricanes to form, but the Pacific can stay active.

4. Should people in Florida be scared right now?
Not scared — just ready! Expect extra rain and thunderstorms, especially Sunday to Tuesday, and watch the updates.

5. Is it weird that no big storm has formed by July 17?
No. On average the second named storm appears around that date, so being a little "behind" is normal and okay.