NL MVP Shocker: Can Crow-Armstrong Dethrone Ohtani?
The Big Race for Baseball’s Best Player: Ohtani vs. Crow-Armstrong
Introduction: A Two-Horse Race
Imagine a race where the same person has won first place for years. Suddenly, a new runner shows up and starts matching them stride for stride. That is exactly what is happening in the National League (NL) Most Valuable Player (MVP) race right now.
For a long time, Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers was the clear favorite. He is a unique "two-way" superstar who hits like a slugger and pitches like an ace. But this year, Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) of the Chicago Cubs has exploded onto the scene. According to the betting odds at DraftKings, they are neck-and-neck.
The winner will be decided by 30 baseball writers at the end of the season, but ESPN asked over 20 current players across 9 teams (not including the Dodgers or Cubs) who they would vote for right now. The results? PCA had the edge among the players polled.
Meet the Contenders
Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers)
- Role: Designated Hitter (hits only) / Starting Pitcher (when healthy).
- The "Unicorn" Factor: He does things no one else in modern history has done—be an elite hitter and an elite pitcher in the same season.
- 2026 Status: He has been the best hitter in the league. However, he hasn’t pitched since July 3 due to knee soreness. He has recently started throwing again, hoping to return to the mound before the season ends.
- Pitching Resume (this year): In 14 starts before getting hurt, he was pitching at a Cy Young Award level (the award for the best pitcher).
Pete Crow-Armstrong "PCA" (Chicago Cubs)
- Role: Center Fielder (plays defense every single game) / Leadoff Hitter.
- The "Complete Package" Factor: He impacts the game in five different ways: hitting for average, hitting for power, running the bases (stealing bases), playing elite defense, and throwing runners out.
- 2026 Status: He plays every day. He leads all of Major League Baseball in Outs Above Average (OAA)—a stat that measures how many extra outs a fielder saves compared to an average player. He is also 2nd in the NL in stolen bases and has a shot at the rare 40 Home Runs / 40 Stolen Bases club.
What the Players Said: The Poll Results
ESPN spoke to players from teams like the Guardians, Reds, White Sox, A’s, Yankees, Cardinals, and Royals. Two very clear stories came out of those conversations.
KEY INSIGHT FROM THE PLAYERS
Two main reasons players leaned toward PCA:
- He plays Gold Glove Center Field every day. Defense matters a lot to players.
- Ohtani isn’t pitching right now. Without his pitching contribution, the "two-way" argument disappears, leaving only the hitting—which PCA is matching or beating.
Team PCA: "The Everyday Impact Player"
Most players polled chose Crow-Armstrong. Here is why, in their own words (simplified):
- Luis Garcia Jr. (Yankees Infielder): "PCA is so good… Ohtani does it all, hitting and pitching. I’ll go with PCA." (Implies that right now, Ohtani is only hitting).
- Brady Singer (Reds Pitcher): "If Ohtani was pitching, it would probably be him. PCA has been incredible… He changes the game. It reminds me of Bobby Witt Jr."
- Rhys Hoskins (Guardians First Baseman): "In the true sense of the word, the guy that plays every day probably makes more of an impact on the team every single day… Anyone that’s watched PCA… this guy is the best player on the field every time he’s on the field."
- Trevor Richards (White Sox Pitcher): "He hasn’t slowed down and on top of that, he’s arguably the best fielder in all of baseball. He’s a complete player… PCA has a chance to go 40/40."
- Mark Leiter Jr. (A’s Pitcher): "One plays elite defense. The other doesn’t play the field. If you take Ohtani out of the rotation, they don’t miss a beat. And if you take him out of the lineup, I still don’t think they miss a beat." (Suggests the Dodgers are so deep they survive without Ohtani; the Cubs rely heavily on PCA).
- Anthony Kay (White Sox Pitcher): "I’d go PCA. If you look at WAR and stuff like that, both have been incredible, but I’d go with Pete."
Team Ohtani: "The Half-Season of Dominance Was Enough"
A few players still voted for Ohtani, mostly valuing his historic two-way peak earlier in the year.
- Sean Burke (White Sox Pitcher): "A half-season of Cy Young-level pitching and what he does offensively, no one has done that on both sides of the ball. He gets my vote."
- Drew Romo (White Sox Catcher): "He’s the most valuable. He’s maybe the greatest player of all time… That first half on the mound was enough for me."
The "Wait and See" Group: It Depends on October
Several players refused to pick a winner yet because the final month—and Ohtani’s potential return to the mound—could change everything.
- Jose Fermin (Cardinals Utility): "We have to see how the final month goes. They’re both fun to watch."
- Matt McLain (Reds Infielder): "As of today, I’d pick PCA. If Ohtani starts pitching again, that could make a difference."
- Emilio Pagan (Reds Pitcher): Shared a brilliant framework from his old manager, Rocco Baldelli:
The "Baldelli Formula" for MVP:
- Compare PCA’s Defensive Value (WAR) in Center Field.
- Compare Ohtani’s Pitching Value (WAR) on the mound.
- Assume their Hitting Value is even (which it basically is right now).
- Whichever is higher wins.
Pagan’s verdict: "If Ohtani starts pitching again… the conversation looks different. If he doesn’t… I’d vote for PCA still."
- Jac Caglianone (Royals 1B/OF): "PCA’s defense is so valuable that I would almost put it in the same tier as Ohtani’s pitching… It’s really neck-and-neck… If Ohtani comes back and throws, it will skew it in his favor."
- Colin Holderman (Guardians Pitcher): "I want to see PCA win it. Just something different. Maybe shared MVP."
The Scorecard: How They Stack Up (Simple Stats)
| Category | Shohei Ohtani | Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting (OPS / wRC+) | 1st in NL | 2nd in NL (Leads wRC+) | Tie / Slight PCA Edge |
| Base Running (Steals) | Good | 2nd in NL (Elite Speed) | PCA |
| Defense (Position) | DH (Does not play field) | Center Field (Leads MLB in Outs Above Average) | PCA (Massive) |
| Pitching | Cy Young Level (14 starts) | None | Ohtani (Massive) |
| Availability | Missed ~2 months pitching; Playing DH daily | Plays CF Every Single Day | PCA |
IMPORTANT CONTEXT: THE "VALUE" DEBATE
The award is "Most Valuable Player," not "Best Player."
- Argument for PCA: He provides elite hitting + elite defense + elite speed every single game (150+ games). He is the engine of the Cubs.
- Argument for Ohtani: His peak value (Pitching like an Ace + Hitting like an MVP) is historically higher than anyone else, even if he only did the pitching part for half the year.
How the Final Month Could Decide It
The voters (BBWAA writers) watch the "stretch run" (September) very closely. Here are the 3 Scenarios that will likely decide the vote:
- Ohtani Returns & Dominates: He makes 4-5 starts, pitches well, and keeps hitting. Winner: Ohtani. (The "Unicorn" is back).
- Ohtani Returns & Struggles / Gets Hurt Again: He tries to pitch but looks rusty or gets shut down. Winner: PCA. (Consistency beats a failed experiment).
- Ohtani Does Not Pitch At All: He finishes the year as a DH only. Winner: Likely PCA. (Players and writers value "playing the field every day" + elite defense over DH-only production, especially when hitting stats are equal).
Summary
- The Race is Historic: We are watching arguably the greatest player ever (Ohtani) vs. the most complete "everyday" player in the game right now (PCA).
- Players Lean PCA: Because he plays premium defense (Center Field) every day, runs the bases like a cheat code, and hits just as well as Ohtani while Ohtani isn’t pitching.
- The X-Factor is Ohtani’s Arm: If he pitches again in September at a high level, the "Two-Way" trump card likely wins him the award. If he doesn’t, PCA’s "Five-Tool Everyday Greatness" takes the trophy.
- It’s Great for Baseball: As Rhys Hoskins said, "To have somebody that is stepping up to him this year, making a race out of it, is pretty frickin’ cool."
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
What does "MVP" actually stand for?
Most Valuable Player. It is voted on by 30 members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA)—two writers from each National League city. They vote before the playoffs start.
What is "WAR" and why do players mention it?
WAR = Wins Above Replacement. It’s a single number that tries to measure a player’s total value (Hitting + Base Running + Fielding + Pitching) compared to a generic bench player. Players like Emilio Pagan use it to compare apples-to-apples: "Is PCA’s defense worth more wins than Ohtani’s pitching?"
What is "OAA" (Outs Above Average)?
It’s a defensive stat using tracking data. PCA leads ALL OF MLB. It means he catches balls that an average center fielder would not catch. He turns hits into outs better than anyone.
Why does it matter that Ohtani is a "DH" (Designated Hitter) right now?
A DH only hits. They do not play defense. In MVP voting, playing a difficult defensive position (like Center Field, Shortstop, or Catcher) adds significant value. A great hitter who also saves runs with his glove is often viewed as "more valuable" than a great hitter who sits on the bench between at-bats.
Has a player ever won MVP without playing defense?
Yes, Shohei Ohtani won the AL MVP in 2021 and 2023 primarily as a DH/Pitcher combo. But in those years, he pitched significantly. David Ortiz won votes as a DH, but never won MVP. If Ohtani doesn’t pitch at all in 2026, he would be a "DH-only" candidate, which is historically a very hard path to an MVP award.