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US-Saudi Strikes Iran Proxies: Iraq Faces Impossible Choice
Iraq Caught in the Middle: US and Saudi Strikes Put Pressure on Baghdad
Quick Summary: The United States and Saudi Arabia recently bombed Iran-backed militias inside Iraq. This puts Iraq’s government in a very tough spot—stuck between its two powerful neighbors and allies.
What Just Happened?
Imagine a playground where three big kids—America, Iran, and Saudi Arabia—keep arguing. Iraq is the smaller kid standing right in the middle, trying not to get pushed around.
- Late July 2026: The US and Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes against militia bases inside Iraq.
- The targets: Groups called the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)—armed groups backed by Iran that are officially part of Iraq’s security forces but often do their own thing.
- The excuse: Saudi Arabia said these militias used drones to attack Saudi oil facilities. The militias deny it and blame Yemen’s Houthi rebels instead.
- Casualties: The PMF says at least 20 fighters were killed and 32 wounded.
- Diplomatic fallout: Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi was supposed to visit Saudi Arabia—but the trip was cancelled indefinitely.
Who Are the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)?
Think of the PMF like a loose coalition of neighborhood watch groups that got official badges but still listen to their own leaders.
| Key Facts About the PMF |
|---|
| Formed: 2014, to fight ISIS after it took over large parts of Iraq |
| Makeup: Mostly Shiite Muslim groups with close ties to Iran |
| Status: Officially part of Iraq’s armed forces since 2016 ("independent military formation") |
| Reality: Many brigades keep their own command structures and operate outside government control |
| Track record: Fought ISIS alongside US forces, but have also attacked US troops in Iraq since the US-Iran war started in February 2026 |
Expert Insight: Lahib Higel of the International Crisis Group says most PMF brigades "have kind of retained the same command structure as they had when they were their individual groups."
Why Is Iraq in Such a Tight Spot?
Since the 2003 US-led invasion, Iraq has been walking a tightrope between:
- Washington (US troops are in Iraq at the government’s invitation)
- Tehran (Iran has deep influence through the PMF and political parties)
The Balancing Act Got Harder in February 2026
When the US and Israel went to war with Iran, Iraqi militias started regularly attacking US bases in Iraq. Now Saudi Arabia—another US ally and Iran’s regional rival—has joined the strikes.
The Disarmament Deadline: A "Mission Impossible"?
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi (a political outsider and businessman praised by President Trump) has set a hard deadline: September 30, 2026.
The Plan
- All non-state armed groups must disarm by Sept 30.
- This matches the deadline for US troops to withdraw from Iraq.
- Some PMF factions could be absorbed into the regular army under full government command.
The Reality
| Group | Stance |
|---|---|
| Some smaller PMF factions | Agreed to integrate/disarm |
| Powerful groups like Kataib Hezbollah | Refused — "No intention of doing so" |
| Most "resistance" groups | Rejected — view themselves as part of Iran’s regional network |
IMPORTANT POINT: Disarming by force could trigger civil conflict. Iraq has a bitter history of internal fighting. But moving too slowly risks US anger and more strikes. It’s the same dilemma Lebanon faces with Hezbollah.
Expert Quote: "Everyone knows that this is a process that is going to take months if not years… And you only have a handful that have agreed to it." — Lahib Higel, International Crisis Group
Why This Matters: The Big Picture
1. Iraq’s Sovereignty Is on the Line
- Iraq’s National Security Council condemned the US-Saudi strikes as violating Iraqi sovereignty.
- The government says it was already investigating Saudi concerns when the bombs fell.
2. The US-Iran War Makes Everything Harder
- As long as the US and Iran are fighting, Iran-backed groups in Iraq see themselves as "active duty".
- They won’t disarm while they believe they’re defending Iran’s interests.
3. Saudi-Iraq Relations Are Damaged
- The cancelled visit by PM al-Zaidi shows trust is broken.
- Saudi Arabia sees the PMF as a direct threat to its oil infrastructure.
4. The US Wants Results, Now
- Trump likes al-Zaidi personally.
- But the US will keep pressing—and possibly striking—until the PMF is reined in.
Summary: The Impossible Choice
| If al-Zaidi pushes hard to disarm the PMF… | If al-Zaidi moves slowly or fails… |
|---|---|
| Risk: Internal fighting, maybe civil war | Risk: US anger, more strikes, loss of support |
| Risk: Iran turns against his government | Risk: Iran-backed groups get stronger |
| Gain: US approval, sovereignty restored | Gain: Short-term peace with militias |
Bottom line: There is no easy path. Al-Zaidi needs time, money, and political genius to absorb the willing and isolate the hardliners—all while a regional war rages around him.
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
What exactly are the "Popular Mobilization Forces"?
A: They’re a coalition of mostly Shiite militias formed in 2014 to fight ISIS. They’re officially part of Iraq’s military but many answer to Iran, not Baghdad. Think of them as semi-official armed groups with divided loyalties.
Why did Saudi Arabia and the US bomb them?
A: Saudi Arabia accused these groups of launching drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities. The US joined the strikes, likely to pressure Iran and protect its own forces in Iraq, which have been attacked by these same militias.
Can Iraq’s Prime Minister actually disarm them?
A: It’s extremely difficult. Some groups might join the regular army. But the most powerful ones (like Kataib Hezbollah) refuse and see themselves as part of Iran’s "axis of resistance." Forcing them out could start a civil war.
How is this like Lebanon and Hezbollah?
A: Both countries have US-backed governments pressured to disarm Iran-backed militias that are stronger than the national army. In both cases, disarmament = risk of civil war; inaction = risk of foreign strikes.
What happens after September 30th?
A: That’s the deadline for US troop withdrawal and militia disarmament. If militias keep their weapons, expect more US/Saudi strikes, more tension, and a very hard time for PM al-Zaidi. The expert consensus: this will take years, not months.
Final Thought: Iraq is the buffer zone in a regional heavyweight fight. Its leader is trying to build a normal country while two rival powers treat his backyard as their boxing ring. The strikes were a reminder: until the big kids stop fighting, the kid in the middle gets hurt.
