1
1
Imagine two countries, the U.S. and Iran, have been having a big argument (a "geopolitical conflict") since the end of February. This made the price of oil (the slippery stuff that powers our cars and machines) bounce around wildly, and made the stock market (where people buy and sell tiny pieces of companies) quite nervous.
They shook hands last month with a ceasefire (a promise to stop fighting), which was a good first step toward peace. But they started arguing again, and this week that promise quietly ended. On July 8, the president said the ceasefire was basically over.
Even with all this drama, the stock market has made people some money this year. But smart investors are picking their favorite teams very carefully.
There are two popular "baskets" of companies (called indexes) we can look at:
Important Callout: The big global companies in the S&P 500 can get scared when far-away countries fight, because they do business there. The small American companies mostly stay home, so they are protected from some of that scary global stuff.
An ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is like a pre-made toy box you can buy. The Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO) is a toy box that holds exact copies of those 2,000 small American companies. If you buy one share, you own a tiny piece of all of them at once!
Both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 baskets have 11 different types of businesses (like tech, health, and banks). But the S&P is stuffed with tech (over one-third of its value!). The Russell is more fairly split up.
Here are the three biggest types of businesses inside the VTWO toy box:
Also, the top 10 favorite toys in this box only make up 7.6% of it. That means if one company trips and falls, the whole box doesn’t break.
Here are the names and how much of the box they take up:
Data source: Vanguard. Portfolio weightings are accurate as of May 31, 2026, and are subject to change.
Even though small companies don’t get as much attention as the giants, some are doing amazing things:
Callout for Important Points: Most of these small companies work mainly inside the U.S. This keeps them safe from foreign fights. Plus, the U.S. government (under the Trump administration) put taxes on foreign goods (tariffs) to help American companies compete, and cut messy rules (regulations) so businesses cost less to run.
If you bought the VTWO toy box 10 years ago, you would have made 152%. That’s good! But the S&P 500 made 251% in that same time, because it had giant trillion-dollar companies like Nvidia and Alphabet leading the way during the AI boom.
However, the Russell can still win in a single year—and it’s doing just that in 2026!
The giant companies (like Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms) sell lots of stuff outside America, so they catch a cold when the world sneezes (wars, oil price jumps). Since America makes its own energy, the small homegrown companies don’t get as sick from Middle East oil swings.
Because the ceasefire with Iran is over (as said on July 8), this conflict will likely stick around. So, the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF might keep doing better than the S&P 500 through the end of 2026 and maybe even longer.
To wrap it up like a simple story: The world has been a little scary with the U.S. and Iran fighting, which makes big global companies nervous. But small American companies (tracked by the Russell 2000 and the VTWO fund) are doing great because they stay home, get help from U.S. rules, and aren’t bothered by overseas oil drama. They’ve already beaten the big guys this year, and they might keep winning for a while!
1. What is the difference between the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000?
Imagine the S&P 500 is a team of 500 giant grown-ups who travel the world for work. The Russell 2000 is a team of 2,000 little kids who mostly play in their own backyard (America). When the world is noisy, the traveling grown-ups get distracted, but the backyard kids keep playing happily.
2. What is an ETF, and what does VTWO do?
An ETF is like a combo meal at a restaurant—you get a little bit of many things at once. VTWO is a combo meal that gives you tiny pieces of 2,000 small American companies, so you don’t have to buy them all one by one.
3. Why are small U.S. companies safer right now?
They do most of their selling inside America. Since the U.S. makes its own energy and the government is helping local businesses with friendlier rules and taxes on imports, these companies don’t get hurt as much by fights in other countries or jumping oil prices.
4. Did the Iran conflict really end the ceasefire?
The countries agreed to stop fighting last month, but tensions flared up. On July 8, President Trump said the ceasefire was effectively over, meaning the conflict is expected to continue for the time being.
5. Is the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF expensive to own?
No! It has a very low expense ratio of just 0.06%, which means for every $100 you invest, you only pay 6 cents a year to own the fund. It also pays a small cash bonus (dividend) of 1.09% a year.