Reabre la frontera con México: ¿Por qué tus compras no bajarán de precio?
US Reopens Border for Mexican Cattle to Help Lower Beef Prices — But Don’t Expect Quick Relief
What’s Happening?
The United States is reopening a border crossing in Douglas, Arizona to allow cattle from Mexico to enter the country. This change starts Monday and is part of a plan to help bring down high beef prices at grocery stores.
Important Point: While this sounds like good news for your wallet, experts say don’t expect prices to drop anytime soon. The problem is much bigger than just one border crossing.
Why Was the Border Closed in the First Place?
In May 2025, the US closed the border to Mexican cattle because of a dangerous parasite called the New World screwworm.
What is the New World Screwworm?
- It’s a fly that lays eggs in open wounds on animals
- The larvae (maggots) eat living flesh
- It can kill cattle, sheep, goats, dogs, and even infect humans
- The US spent decades eradicating it (successfully by the 1960s)
- It was contained near the Panama Canal for years
- But it returned to southern Mexico in late 2024
- First US case since 1966 found in Texas on June 3, 2025
- Since then: 40+ confirmed cases in southern Texas and southeastern New Mexico
Why Reopen Now?
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) says the risk has decreased enough to allow cattle through one specific crossing in Douglas, Arizona.
Safety Measures in Place:
- Only cattle from Sonora and Chihuahua (northern Mexican states) allowed — they have stronger animal health programs
- Every single animal will be inspected
- Each must be certified parasite-free before crossing
- Other crossings in New Mexico and Texas may reopen later
Important Point: Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman calls this a "careful, science-based approach" to protect the $113 billion US cattle industry.
The Real Problem: America’s Shrinking Cattle Herd
The border closure made things worse, but the root cause started years earlier.
By the Numbers:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| US cattle herd (Jan 1, 2026) | 86.2 million — smallest in 75 years |
| Mexican cattle typically supplied | 1.1 million head/year (3% of US supply) |
| Ground beef price (July 2021) | $4.39/lb |
| Ground beef price (July 2026) | $6.89/lb — up 57% |
| Steak price (July 2026) | $13.06/lb — up 35% |
| Overall food prices (5 years) | Up ~25% |
Why Is the Herd So Small? Two Main Reasons:
1. Drought in Cattle Country
- No grass grows → nothing for cattle to eat
- Ranchers forced to sell off animals
2. 20 Years of Low Cattle Prices
- Ranchers couldn’t make a profit
- Many reduced their herds or quit entirely
- "The culmination of 18–20 years of very low cattle prices" — David Anderson, Texas A&M
What Else Is the Government Doing?
President Trump announced tariff-free imports of up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef (about 331,000 tons) for the next 90 days, to be sold below market prices.
But experts say this is a short-term bandage, not a fix.
Why Won’t Prices Drop Quickly?
1. Mexican Cattle Are a Small Piece of the Puzzle
- Mexico supplies only 3% of US cattle
- Even at full flow, that’s 1.1 million animals — a drop in the bucket
2. Rebuilding the Herd Takes Years
- A cow typically has only one calf per year
- To rebuild, ranchers must keep female calves (heifers) for breeding instead of sending them to market
- This tightens supply even more while the herd grows
3. Processing Plants Are Closing
- Tyson Foods: Closed plants in Nebraska, Utah, Illinois
- JBS USA: Planned closures in Memphis and Pennsylvania (partially reversed)
- Less processing capacity = bottlenecks
Important Point: "No measurable impact soon" on cattle or beef prices — Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University
Expert Predictions: What Happens Next?
| Expert | Institution | Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Derrell Peel | Oklahoma State | Prices stay high for "some time"; "nothing can be done" quickly |
| Glynn Tonsor | Kansas State | Industry efficiency (more meat per animal) has softened the blow slightly |
| David Anderson | Texas A&M | Herd rebuilding is a multi-year process driven by biology and economics |
Summary: What You Need to Know
- Border reopening at Douglas, AZ starts Monday for Mexican cattle
- Closed since May 2025 due to deadly screwworm parasite
- US cattle herd at 75-year low (86.2 million head)
- Beef prices up dramatically: Ground beef +57%, Steak +35% in 5 years
- Root causes: Drought + 20 years of low rancher profits
- Experts agree: No quick price relief — rebuilding takes years
- Government also allowing tariff-free ground beef imports for 90 days
- Safety first: Every animal inspected, parasite-free certification required
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
Will my grocery bill go down next week?
No. Experts say it will take months to years for any measurable effect. Mexican cattle are only 3% of supply, and the US herd must be rebuilt first.
Is the screwworm dangerous to humans?
Yes, but rarely. The fly can lay eggs in open wounds on people. However, the 40+ recent US cases were in animals (cattle, sheep, goats, dogs). Inspections at the border aim to prevent spread.
Why does it take so long to rebuild the cattle herd?
Biology. A cow has one calf per year. To grow the herd, ranchers must keep female calves for breeding instead of selling them for beef — which means even less meat in the short term.
Are meatpacking plants closing because of the border closure?
Partly. The bigger issue is not enough cattle to process. Tyson and JBS have closed multiple plants because the US herd is too small to keep them running profitably.
What’s the difference between this border reopening and the tariff-free beef imports?
- Border reopening: Live Mexican cattle enter US → raised/slaughtered here → long-term supply help
- Tariff-free beef imports: Already-processed ground beef enters US → sold cheap for 90 days → temporary price relief
This article is based on reporting from the Associated Press, translated from English with AI assistance.