A Simple Guide to One Writer’s Bitcoin Outlook

Meet the Writer: Not a Doomster

The author says: “I’m not a perma-bear. I’m not a doomster.”
That just means they are not someone who always thinks everything will crash.

• They have been saying bitcoin’s price would go down for a while.
• And yes, bitcoin has been falling.

The Writer’s Track Record

The writer shares their history so you can trust them:

• They called bitcoin up in 2017, 2021, and 2025.
• They were a bitcoin bull (someone who thinks price will rise) on the way up.
• They became a bear (someone who thinks price will fall) on the way back down each time.
• All of these calls are on Forbes if you want to check.

What Kind of Bitcoin Person Is This Writer?

They explain a fun label:

• They are not a “bitcoin maxi” (someone who always says buy and hold forever).
• They are a “bitcoin vari”: buy it when it’s cheap, sell it when it’s expensive.

They also say:

• They are not picking only good calls to look smart.
• They could say bitcoin hasn’t risen since 2024, but they won’t.
• They could say you’d beat gold and the S&P 500 if you bought in 2023, but they won’t, because “accurate hindsight has no value.”
• They care about “approximate foresight” (guessing the future roughly right).
• They still think bitcoin is going down some more.

The Chart and the Expected Bottom

The writer shows a chart (from ANewFN.com) asking: “Are we approaching the bottom?”

• The chart is just another version of what they said before.
• As time passes, the map to the destination gets a little clearer.
• They expect the bottom to be between $30,000 and $40,000.

Important Point:
It’s not fate—things can intervene—but a drop to $30k–$40k is a high-probability outcome.

Headwinds: Why Bitcoin Has Problems

There are many things working against bitcoin:

• One big problem: bitcoin is used by adversaries of the U.S.
• Some people get angry when the writer says this.
• But about 30 minutes of research shows serious “skulduggery” (bad hidden activity).
• The U.S. might change its friendly attitude toward bitcoin later.
• The U.S. will likely try—and succeed—in removing bitcoin’s largest use case: helping people dodge sanctions and do illegal deals.
• Some deny this use exists, but it clearly does.
• Example: “Bomb Iran and pooooff… off goes 25% of the mining hash rate.”
  (Mining hash rate = the total computing power keeping bitcoin running.)

Will Bitcoin Ever Go to Zero?

• Bitcoin, like a CryptoPunk NFT (a type of digital collectible), will never go to zero.
• But the future could reverse its four-year cycle of going up in value.

What Happens Next?

• First, we must reach the end of this price cycle.
• Then see how the next one begins.
• Iran, North Korea, and Asian scam-centre slavers will not help bitcoin’s future.
• Whether they permanently damage BTC is still unknown.

Important Point:
If you do not watch out for that “sting in the tail” (a hidden final hit), it may well get you.

Summary

• The writer is not a permanent pessimist, just someone calling bitcoin down after earlier bull calls.
• They buy low and sell high (“bitcoin vari”), not a maxi.
• They expect bitcoin to fall further to around $30,000–$40,000.
• U.S. opponents using bitcoin and possible U.S. crackdowns are big risks.
• Bitcoin won’t hit zero, but its usual 4-year rise pattern could break.
• Stay alert for a final hidden downside.

FAQ

1. What is a “bitcoin vari”?
It’s the writer’s word for someone who buys bitcoin when cheap and sells when expensive, instead of holding forever.

2. Why does the writer think bitcoin could fall to $30k–$40k?
Based on their chart and past patterns, they see a high-probability drop to that range, though it’s not guaranteed.

3. Could bitcoin go to zero?
The writer says no—like certain NFTs, it will never be worth nothing.

4. What is the “largest use case” the U.S. may remove?
Using bitcoin to get around sanctions and do illicit transactions.

5. What should readers watch out for?
The “sting in the tail”—a possible hidden final drop that could hurt unprepared holders.