SpaceX Stock: Why Short Sellers Are Betting Against It

What Is Happening with SpaceX Stock?

Imagine a company called SpaceX (run by Elon Musk) just started letting regular people buy pieces of it called "shares" on the stock market. This is called an IPO (Initial Public Offering) — like the company’s first big sale of tickets to ownership.

A picture from June 12, 2026, shows Elon Musk at SpaceX’s IPO event in New York City.

Right now, some people are making big bets that SpaceX’s stock price will go down. These people are called "short sellers."

What Are Short Sellers Doing?

Short sellers are quickly increasing their bets against SpaceX. Here is what that means in simple terms:

• They borrow shares and sell them, hoping to buy them back later at a lower price.
• This is called "shorting" — betting the price falls.
• Their bearish (negative) bets now make up almost one-third of all the shares regular people can trade.

According to a company called S3 Partners:

• About 185 million SpaceX shares are sold short right now.
• That is roughly 29% of the public float (the shares available for trading).
• It equals about $25 billion in bearish wagers.
• Just three weeks ago, only about 40 million shares (5%–7% of float) were shorted.

Important Point: Short interest ballooned from ~40 million shares to ~185 million shares in only three weeks!

Matthew Unterman from S3 said: "We are seeing continuous demand from short sellers building speculative positions since the IPO."

How Is the Stock Doing?

After a strong start, SpaceX shares have struggled:

• The stock fell about 20% in July.
• It briefly dropped below its $135 IPO price on Wednesday for the first time.
• It was last trading around $136 per share.

What Is a Lockup and Why Does It Matter?

When SpaceX went public, only about 5% of its ~13 billion total shares were available to trade. The rest were locked up — like being frozen so owners can’t sell yet.

KeyBanc Capital Markets shared this schedule:

1. First major unlock: Around the second-quarter earnings report — about 11% of all shares may become sellable.
2. More unlocks: Roughly 4% chunks starting around day 70 after the IPO.
3. Further unlocks: Tied to performance goals and third-quarter earnings.
4. Elon Musk’s big stake: About 42% of shares, locked up until June 2027.

Important Point: More shares becoming available could change the stock price a lot in coming months.

What Else Could Move the Stock?

SpaceX’s 13th Starship test flight is planned for Thursday. This event could make people feel more positive or negative about the shares.

Summary

• Short sellers are rapidly betting against SpaceX, with ~29% of tradable shares now shorted.
• The stock has dropped ~20% in July and dipped below its IPO price.
• A lockup schedule will release more shares soon, possibly affecting price.
• Elon Musk’s stake stays locked until 2027.
• A Starship test flight this Thursday may shift sentiment.

FAQ

Q: What does "short selling" mean in kid terms?
A: It’s like borrowing a toy, selling it, and hoping its price drops so you can buy it back cheaper and keep the difference.

Q: What is an IPO?
A: It’s the first time a private company sells shares to the public so anyone can own a piece.

Q: Why is the lockup period a big deal?
A: Because when locked shares unlock, more can be sold, which might push the price down or up depending on demand.

Q: What is the "public float"?
A: It’s the small portion of total shares that regular people are allowed to buy and sell right now.