The Big Race: Who Should Be the National League Rookie of the Year?

Quick Summary: Two amazing first-year players—JJ Wetherholt (St. Louis Cardinals) and Sal Stewart (Cincinnati Reds)—are battling for the title of the best rookie in the National League. Their managers (the team bosses) both think their guy should win. Here’s the simple breakdown of why this race is so close and exciting!

Meet the Two Contenders

JJ Wetherholt – St. Louis Cardinals (Second Baseman)

• Role: Leadoff hitter (bats first, sets the table for the team)
• Superpower: Elite defense – he’s arguably the best second baseman in the entire league
• Key Stats:
  • 4.5 bWAR & 4.3 fWAR (leads all NL rookies)
  • 21 Fielding Run Value (2nd in all of baseball!)
  • .333 On-Base Percentage (gets on base a lot)
  • 13 Stolen Bases

Sal Stewart – Cincinnati Reds (First Baseman)

• Role: Cleanup/Two-hole hitter (bats 2nd or 4th, drives in runs)
• Superpower: Clutch hitting & power – especially with runners on base
• Key Stats:
  • 91 RBIs (tied for 2nd in all of MLB!)
  • 26 Home Runs
  • 12 Stolen Bases (rare for a first baseman!)
  • 114 wRC+ (14% better than average hitter)
  • .315/.374/.621 with Runners in Scoring Position (insanely good!)

What Do the Fancy Stats Mean? (ELI5 Edition)

Important Callout: Don’t let the alphabet soup scare you! Here’s what they actually mean:

Why Is This Race So Tight? The Tale of Two Player Types

1. Wetherholt = The Complete Package (Especially Defense)

• Plays second base – a "premium" defensive position (harder to play well)
• Elite glove: Makes routine plays and spectacular ones. Always in the right spot. Never takes a pitch off.
• Park Factor Boost: Plays half his games at Busch Stadium (a pitcher’s park = harder to hit). WAR rewards him for producing in a tough park.
• Leadoff hitter: Job is to get on base, run, score runs. He does this exceptionally well.

2. Stewart = The Run Producer (Offensive Juggernaut)

• Plays first base – traditionally an offense-first position (easier defensively)
• New to the position: Started only 2 games at 1B in minors! Now starting 75+ games there (plus 3B, 2B). That versatility has value!
• RBI Machine: 91 RBIs – drives in runs like a veteran. 1 behind the MLB leader (his counterpart Alec Burleson).
• Clutch Gene: Hits .500 with a runner on 3rd & <2 outs! Managers fear him in big moments.
• Park Factor Penalty: Plays at Great American Ball Park – a hitter’s paradise. WAR penalizes him slightly for this.
• wRC+ Leader: 114 vs 107 – Stewart has actually been the better pure hitter per plate appearance.

What the Managers Say (And Why It Matters)

Terry Francona (Reds Manager) on Sal Stewart:

"Sal might lead the league in RBIs — that’s a stat people don’t value as much anymore… There’s something to be said for a guy that’s got 12 stolen bases, 26 home runs and 91 RBIs. That’s pretty damn good."

• Francona’s Point: Old-school production (RBIs, HRs, speed) still matters! Stewart does everything offensively.

Oli Marmol (Cardinals Manager) on JJ Wetherholt:

"He’s the best second baseman in the league… He doesn’t take a pitch off. So that is being a competitor when you don’t give in any of those areas."

• Marmol’s Point: Consistency, defense, and maturity define greatness. Wetherholt plays a premium position at an elite level every single day.

The Ultimate Respect: Marmol Pitches Around Elly De La Cruz to Face Stewart!

In a tied extra-inning game, Marmol intentionally walked superstar Elly De La Cruz (putting the winning run on base) to pitch to Sal Stewart with 1st base open.

• Why? "Once you put Stewart on first, you have a chance… If not, you’re f—ed."
• Translation: The opposing manager thinks Stewart is the scariest hitter on the planet in that moment. That’s the highest compliment.

The "Rookie" Label? They’ve Already Outgrown It

• Marmol on Wetherholt: "He’s come into the big leagues… as secure as anybody I’ve seen… never hits the panic button."
• Marmol on Stewart (after coaching him in All-Star Game): "You can be around him for 30 seconds and have a really good understanding that he believes in his stuff… very open to understanding what’s next."
• Both managers: Don’t treat them like rookies anymore. They’re core building blocks for their franchises.

The Bigger Picture: A Golden Era for Young Talent

Important Callout: This isn’t just a two-horse race! There’s a whole herd of amazing rookies clustered around 2.0 WAR:

• Carson Benge (Mets OF)
• Joe Mack (Marlins C)
• TJ Rumfield (Rockies 1B)
• Marmol’s Take: "There’s a lot of good young players… that’s a good thing for the game."

How Would You Vote? A Step-by-Step Framework

1. Define "Value": What matters more to you?
   • Peak defensive impact at a hard position + baserunning + tough park? → Wetherholt
   • Elite run production, clutch hitting, power/speed combo, positional versatility? → Stewart
2. Check the Ledger:
   • WAR (Total Value): Wetherholt wins (4.5 vs ~2.0) largely due to defense & position.
   • Offensive Rate Stats (wRC+): Stewart wins (114 vs 107).
   • Counting Stats (RBIs, HRs): Stewart wins comfortably.
   • Defense (Statcast): Wetherholt wins in a landslide (21 vs 1).
3. Consider Context:
   • Wetherholt: Premium position (2B), tough home park, leadoff role.
   • Stewart: Learning 1B on the fly, hitter’s park, RBI machine, clutch performer.
4. Make Your Case! There’s no "wrong" answer – just different philosophies on value.

Summary

The 2024 NL Rookie of the Year race is a fantastic debate between two distinct superstar profiles:

• JJ Wetherholt (Cards) wins on advanced metrics (WAR) driven by historic defense at second base and playing in a tough park. He’s the prototype modern leadoff man.
• Sal Stewart (Reds) wins on traditional production (RBIs, HRs), clutch hitting, pure hitting metrics (wRC+), and positional versatility (learning 1B on the fly).

Both managers are right to be biased. Both players have exceeded "rookie" expectations and look like franchise cornerstones. The fact that we’re splitting hairs between a 4.5 WAR defender and a 91-RBI slugger? That means baseball’s future is incredibly bright.

FAQ: Your Burning Questions, Answered Simply

What does "WAR" actually mean for a rookie?

Think of it like a "Total Value Score." It tries to combine hitting, baserunning, AND fielding into one number: "How many more games did this player win for his team than a replacement-level guy (a AAA call-up) would have?" 4.5 WAR = All-Star level. 2.0 WAR = Solid everyday starter. Wetherholt’s 4.5 is exceptional for a rookie.

Why does Stewart have lower WAR if he has more RBIs and HRs?

Two big reasons:

1. Position/Defense: 1B is much easier to play than 2B. WAR gives a huge bonus for playing a premium position (2B, SS, CF, C) well. Wetherholt plays 2B elite-ly. Stewart is average at 1B.
2. Park Factors: GABP (Reds) helps hitters. Busch (Cards) hurts hitters. WAR adjusts for this. Stewart’s numbers are "discounted" slightly; Wetherholt’s are "premium-ized."

Is RBIs a "bad" stat now?

Not "bad" – just "context-dependent." RBIs measure opportunity + execution. Stewart has 91 because he hits behind great hitters (like Elly De La Cruz) and executes incredibly well (.315 avg with RISP). Francona’s point: Driving in 91 runs as a rookie is a massive, tangible achievement, even if analytics prefer rate stats like wRC+.

Why did Marmol walk Elly De La Cruz to face Stewart?

Game theory! De La Cruz strikes out a lot & hits grounders (double play chance). Stewart crushes the ball in clutch spots (.500 with R3B/<2 outs). Marmol calculated: "I’d rather take my chances with the elite defender (Wetherholt) behind me against De La Cruz than face Stewart with the game on the line." It backfired (error), but the logic was sound respect for Stewart.

Can a guy win ROY with "only" ~2 WAR if another guy has 4.5?

Historically? Almost never. WAR leaders usually win. But: Voters are human. They see 91 RBIs, 26 HRs, 12 SB, clutch hits, All-Star nod. If the narrative becomes "Stewart was the most feared and productive rookie," he could pull the upset. It’s the Analytics vs. Eye Test / Counting Stats debate in a nutshell!