Phillies Duo Stott & Marsh: Stats That Make No Sense
The Tale of Two Phillies: How Bryson Stott Got Hot While Brandon Marsh Went Cold (And Why It Matters)
The Big Picture
Imagine two teammates on a roller coaster. One starts at the bottom and climbs higher every month. The other starts at the very top, then plunges down—only to start climbing back up. That’s exactly what happened with Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh this season.
At the start of July, their seasons looked totally different:
- Marsh was an All-Star, crushing the ball with an .868 OPS (a stat that combines getting on base and hitting for power)
- Stott was struggling, ranked 115th out of 154 qualified hitters with a .695 OPS
Fast forward to August, and they’re practically neck-and-neck on the team leaderboard—separated by just 10 points of OPS.
Important Point: OPS stands for "On-base Plus Slugging." It adds together how often a player reaches base (walks + hits) and how much power they show (doubles, triples, homers). Higher is better. League average is usually around .700-.750.
Stott’s Steady Climb: From Rough Start to Superstar Level
The Slow Start Wasn’t All His Fault
In March and April, Stott hit just .207/.276 (batting average/slugging). But the "expected" numbers—what should have happened based on how hard he hit the ball—said he should have hit .250/.358.
Translation: He smoked the ball but got unlucky. Balls that usually fall for hits were caught.
The Numbers Back It Up
| Month | Hard-Hit Rate | What This Means |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Season | 29.5% | Career norm |
| March/April 2026 | 43.7% | 3rd highest single month of his career |
| Full 2026 Season | 39.9% | +10.4% increase — BIGGEST IN MLB |
He’s also barreling the ball more than ever (6.3% barrel rate — career high). "Barrels" are the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle that almost always produce extra-base hits.
Since May 1: An Absolute Tear
Since the calendar flipped to May, Stott has been the Phillies’ best player:
- Slash line: .281/.359/.453 (AVG/OBP/SLG)
- 3.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) — 7th in ALL of MLB, 2nd in the National League
- Strikeout rate dropped: 18.9% → 16.8%
- Walk rate doubled: 5.3% → 10.7%
Important Point: WAR (Wins Above Replacement) estimates how many more games a team wins with this player vs. a replacement-level bench player. 3.2 WAR in ~4 months is elite, MVP-caliber production.
Marsh’s Wild Ride: All-Star → Worst in Baseball → Rebounding?
The First Half: Too Good to Be True?
Through June, Marsh hit .317/.520 with a .868 OPS. But advanced metrics screamed "regression coming":
- Expected BA: .277 (actual was .317) → 40 points higher than expected
- Expected SLG: .448 (actual was .520) → 72 points higher than expected
- BABIP: .395 — HIGHEST IN BASEBALL
Important Point: BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) measures how often balls in play become hits. League average is ~.300. Marsh’s .395 meant nearly 4 of every 10 balls in play fell for hits—extremely lucky.
July: The Crash Landing
From July 1 onward, Marsh became the Phillies’ worst hitter and the 5th-worst qualified hitter in MLB:
- Slash line: .183/.260/.267
- OPS: .527 (180 points worse than Alec Bohm, the team’s 2nd-worst at .707)
- Expected BA: .202 (actual .140) → -62 points (3rd worst in MLB)
- Expected SLG: .325 (actual .209) → -116 points (3rd worst in MLB)
- BABIP: .172 — 5th lowest in baseball
The swing went from "everything falls in" to "nothing falls in."
What Changed? His Batted Ball Profile Collapsed
| Metric | April–June | July | What Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pulled Ball in Air | 18.7% | 11.7% | Stopped hitting the ball hard to his pull side (best outcome) |
| Line Drive Rate | ~22% | 16.7% | Fewer "ropes" that find gaps |
| Fly Ball Rate | ~28% | 33.3% | More lazy fly balls (easy outs) |
| Ground Ball Rate | ~42% | 48.3% | More worm burners |
| Hard-Hit Rate | 46.3% | 40% | Less authority |
August: Marsh Shows Signs of Life
Through 13 games in August, Marsh looks like a different hitter:
- Hits in 9 of 13 games
- Slash line: .267/.378 (actual) | .287/.431 (expected)
- Line Drive Rate: 39.5% (elite)
- Pulled Ball in Air: 28.9% (way up)
- Ground Ball Rate: 31.6% (way down)
- Hard-Hit Rate: 52.6% (crushing the ball)
Important Point: This is a small sample (only ~50 plate appearances). But the quality of contact matches his All-Star first half, not his disastrous July.
Why This Matters for the Phillies
As of Saturday, the Phillies are just outside the NL playoff picture with 39 games left.
They need:
- Stott to keep being a superstar (7th in MLB WAR since May 1)
- Marsh to rediscover his first-half form (not his July form)
If both click simultaneously, this lineup becomes deep and dangerous—exactly what you need for a World Series push.
Summary
- Bryson Stott started slow due to bad luck, but hit the ball harder than ever. Since May, he’s been one of the best players in baseball (7th in MLB WAR).
- Brandon Marsh started hot but got too lucky (highest BABIP in MLB). July brought extreme bad luck + poor contact quality → 5th-worst hitter in MLB.
- Marsh’s August shows dramatically improved contact quality (more line drives, more pulled air balls, harder contact) — encouraging but small sample.
- Phillies need both to make a playoff run with 39 games remaining.
FAQ
Q: What is "expected" batting average (xBA) and why does it matter?
A: xBA uses Statcast data (exit velocity, launch angle) to calculate what a hitter’s batting average should be based on how they hit the ball. It removes luck. If actual BA is much higher than xBA, the hitter got lucky. Much lower = unlucky.
Q: What does "pulling the ball in the air" mean and why is it good?
A: "Pulling" means hitting to the same side as your stance (left field for righties, right field for lefties). "In the air" means line drives or fly balls, not grounders. Pulled air balls produce the highest slugging percentages—think home runs and doubles down the line.
Q: Is Marsh’s July performance a sign he’s "bad" now?
A: Not necessarily. His expected stats (.202 BA, .325 SLG) were still below average but nowhere near his actual .140/.209. He hit into terrible luck and changed his swing (more fly balls/grounders, fewer line drives). The August data suggests he’s correcting the swing issues.
Q: How rare is Stott’s 10.4% increase in hard-hit rate?
A: It’s the largest year-over-year increase in all of MLB in 2026. That’s not just improvement—that’s a fundamental change in how he hits the ball.
Q: What’s a "qualified hitter"?
A: A player with enough plate appearances (3.1 per team game) to qualify for the batting title. It filters out bench players and call-ups so leaderboards reflect regulars.