The Chicago White Sox Are Winning and Nobody Saw It Coming (Including Us)

Wait, the White Sox Are in First Place?

Before the baseball season started, imagine I told you this: "The Baltimore Orioles’ last series in June will be against the Chicago White Sox, and one of those two teams will be in first place."

If you had to guess which team would be in first, you almost certainly would have guessed the Orioles — not the White Sox! And even after the Orioles swept the White Sox back in April (when Chicago was dead last), most people still wouldn’t have picked them.

But here we are.

Just How Good Have the White Sox Been?

Since that April 8th sweep, the White Sox have gone 39 wins and 30 losses. That’s the second-best record in the entire American League during that stretch. They now sit in first place in the AL Central (tied with Cleveland), and their 43 total wins trail only the Yankees and Rays in the league.

We’re just past the halfway point of the season. Before it started:

• PECOTA (a fancy baseball prediction system) projected the White Sox to win just 69 games all season.
• A fan site called South Side Sox ran their own numbers and projected 74 wins.

Last year, the White Sox won only 60 games. So 74 would be a big improvement. But here’s the twist: if they only reach 74, that would mean playing terribly — about 20 games under .500 — for the rest of the season. The writer doesn’t think that’ll happen.

For fun context: The 2026 White Sox already have 43 wins. The 2024 White Sox won just 41 total. So this year’s team is already ahead.

But Are They Really Good, Though?

Let’s pump the brakes a little. Outside of Baltimore’s division, first place in the American League isn’t quite the powerhouse it used to be. The White Sox are only four games over .500, meaning a bad losing streak could push them below average any time now.

So far this June, they’ve actually been slightly below average at 11 wins and 12 losses. They’ve got two more games this month against the Orioles to try to finish with a winning June.

So Why Are They Winning? Let’s Break It Down

Their Pitching: Just Okay

The White Sox have scored 388 runs and allowed 369. Their actual record matches up pretty well with what you’d expect from those numbers (that’s called their "Pythagorean record" — basically, it’s a way to check if a team is overperforming or underperforming based on runs).

But here’s the thing about pitching:

• Their team ERA is 4.25, which is below the league average (not great).
• Their starting pitching has been worth 5.1 fWAR, tied with the Orioles for 18th in all of baseball. (Relief pitching is worth just 2.0 fWAR — worse than Baltimore’s 2.2.)

That’s… fine. Fine isn’t why a team wins though.

It’s the Offense That’s Doing the Heavy Lifting

Yes, it’s the offense. FanGraphs (a baseball stats site) ranks the White Sox as the sixth-best hitting team in baseball. That’s where the magic is happening.

The two biggest stars:

1. Miguel Vargas (Third Baseman)

• Age 26, in his second full season with the White Sox
• Hitting: .252/.366/.500 with 19 home runs
• He walks a lot (13.5% of the time) and strikes out rarely (17%)
• He’s matured into a really solid player

2. Colson Montgomery (Shortstop)

• Hit 20 home runs and 14 doubles
• Good defender at shortstop
• He does strike out a lot (nearly one-third of the time), which is a concern

Their best hitter, Munetaka Murakami, hasn’t played since May 29th because of a hamstring injury. His absence might explain why June has been rough so far. He’s expected back in early July.

Oriole Killer Alert: There’s a player named Randal Grichuk who the article’s author really hopes Baltimore’s pitching can shut down. Since joining the White Sox in early May, he has 9 home runs and an OPS over 1.000 (that’s really good). In his career against the Orioles, he’s hit 22 home runs and 20 doubles with a .697 slugging percentage. Yikes.

Overall, the White Sox have five players with an OPS+ over 120 (which means they’re significantly better than average hitters).

Preview: The Orioles vs. White Sox Series

Now let’s look at what’s coming up. Here’s a pitch-by-pitch breakdown of the matchups.

Game 1: Shane Baz vs. Sean Burke

Shane Baz (Orioles)

• 16 starts, 94 innings, with a 4.31 ERA
• From May 20th through June 18th, he was on fire: 2.39 ERA over 6 starts, allowing just 2 home runs and dropping his ERA from 5.26 to 4.04
• His last start, though, was rough: 5 runs allowed in 5 innings against the Angels
• Hope that was just a one-game blip and not a return to the struggling pitcher from early in the season.

Sean Burke (White Sox)

• Drafted in the 3rd round in 2021 out of the University of Maryland (go Terps!)
• 16 games with 12 starts, 87.1 innings, 3.71 ERA
• Coming off two fantastic games against Cleveland and New York: 13.2 total innings, only 2 runs, 14 strikeouts, and just 2 walks
• He also beat the Orioles in April (2 runs in 5 innings), so Baltimore has seen him before

Game 2: Trey Gibson vs. Erick Fedde

Trey Gibson (Orioles)

• 7 games with 6 starts, 30.1 innings, 5.64 ERA (yikes)
• Rookie who can’t get deep into games and walks too many batters
• His last start was weird: he was doing okay, but the manager pulled him after just 4 innings
• He’s currently pitching for his spot in the rotation because Dean Kremer is waiting in the wings

This matchup isn’t exactly inspiring, folks.

Erick Fedde (White Sox)

• The "old man" of the White Sox rotation at 33
• He’s their worst starter right now: he gives up a lot of home runs and walks, with a high WHIP of 1.420
• This is the kind of starter the Orioles should be able to pile up runs against
• Naturally, he pitched well against Baltimore in April (2 runs in 6 innings), because of course he did

Game 3: Wednesday, 12:35 PM

Game 3 is a mystery right now on the pitching front.

For the White Sox, it could be Noach Schultz:

• A 22-year-old left-handed rookie
• He’s been on the injured list since late May with patellar tendinitis
• He’s made 3 rehab starts and his last one was this past Friday
• Before getting hurt, he had a 5.82 ERA in 8 starts
• Oh, and he’s a lefty — which tends to give the Orioles trouble
• Also, he’s 6’10", which is just fun to picture

For the Orioles, the smart money is on Dean Kremer:

• He also pitched for Triple-A Norfolk last Friday and threw 6.2 shutout innings
• He looks ready to come off the injured list
• Trevor Rogers could theoretically pitch on normal rest, but the team likes to give him an extra day, making Kremer the likely pick

FAQ

Q: Are the White Sox actually good this year, or is this a fluke?

A: They’ve genuinely played well since April 8th (the second-best record in the AL). But they’re still only 4 games over .500, so a losing streak could change things fast. Their offense (ranked 6th in baseball) is carrying them while their pitching is just average.

Q: Who are the key White Sox players to watch?

A: The big names are Miguel Vargas (19 HR, lots of walks) and Colson Montgomery (20 HR, good defense). Also keep an eye out for Munetaka Murakami returning from injury in early July, and Randal Grichuk, who has historically terrorized the Orioles.

Q: What’s fWAR and why does it matter?

A: fWAR (wins above replacement) is a number that tries to measure how many wins a player is worth compared to a "replacement-level" player — basically, the bare minimum a team could find. Higher = more valuable.

Q: How good has Shane Baz been this year?

A: Pretty good overall! He had a rough start (5.26 ERA) but went on an incredible run in late May and June (2.39 ERA over 6 starts). His last start was bad though, so there’s some concern.

Q: What should Orioles fans expect from this series?

A: It should be competitive! The White Sox offense is legitimately good, and they’re playing at home. But Baltimore has faced Chicago’s starters before, and Game 2’s matchup (Gibson vs. Fedde) could be a chance for the Orioles to score a lot of runs.

The Big Takeaway

Nobody — and we mean nobody — predicted the White Sox would be in first place at this point in the season. They’ve been carried by a surprisingly excellent offense while their pitching has scattered between decent and below-average. They’re not a dominant team, but they’ve been scrappy, consistent, and genuinely fun to watch. Whether they can maintain that pace the rest of the way is the big question. One thing’s for sure: this series against the Orioles is going to be a lot more interesting than anyone expected back in April.