San Antonio’s Weather: Why Rain Might Finally Visit After a Long Dry Spell

A Quick Look Back: When It Rained a Lot, Then Stopped

From April 1 through June 20, San Antonio recorded 19.84 inches of rainfall. That’s like filling a big bucket way more than usual—normally, for that same time period, the average total is only 8.74 inches (so the city got more than double!).

But after that rainy party, the rain stopped coming. As of Wednesday, the Alamo City had gone 18 days with no measurable rainfall (meaning not even enough water to be counted by a rain gauge). The dry streak is real!

• A line chart in the original article shows these rainfall numbers visually.
• The city had been very wet, then suddenly very thirsty.

Important Point: A “dry streak” is just a simple way of saying “many days in a row without any rain we can measure.” Eighteen days is a long time for this area!

A Friendly Visitor From the Gulf

A weak atmospheric disturbance (think of it as a small, gentle swirl of clouds and wind) has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico. It’s like a slow-moving cloud friend that will travel north. This system will bring moisture-rich air (air that carries tiny invisible water droplets) into South-Central Texas. The result? Scattered tropical downpours (warm, heavy rain that comes from ocean-like air) from late Friday and into Saturday. This may be San Antonio’s best rain chance in weeks!

(Picture note: One map from the source shows this disturbance bringing scattered showers and storms into South Texas on Friday and through the weekend.)

Thursday’s Forecast: Still Sunny but Toasty

Before the rain friend arrives, Thursday will be calm and dry. Here is how the day will likely go, step by step:

1. Morning: Temperatures hover in the mid- to upper 70s°F under mostly sunny skies.
2. By 10 a.m.: The temperature rises quickly to the mid-80s°F.
3. By noon: We reach the 90-degree mark.
4. Afternoon: It will likely top out at around 95°F. Because the air is sticky (humid), the “feels like” temperature (called the heat index) will rise to near 100°F. That’s what your skin thinks the temperature is.
5. Evening: Weather stays very warm; temperatures won’t drop into the upper 80s until after 8 p.m. Winds will be breezy, with gusts up to 20 mph.

Along the Texas coast (from Brownsville to Corpus Christi), a few scattered showers and storms may appear during the afternoon, but San Antonio is expected to stay dry and sunny all day.

(Picture note: Another map from the source shows the expected “feels like” temperatures across South Texas at 5 p.m. Thursday.)

Important Point: Even though Thursday is rain-free, the heat index near 100°F means it will feel dangerously hot. Drink water and stay cool!

Rain Chances to Rise: Friday and Saturday

Now the cloud friend gets closer, and our rain odds go up.

• Friday: Scattered showers and storms are expected across South Texas by afternoon/evening. San Antonio’s overall chance of rain is only about 20% to 30%, meaning many spots stay dry.
  • Any storms that do form might bring:
  • Frequent lightning (bright flashes)
  • Gusty winds
  • Heavy tropical downpours with rainfall rates possibly over 2 inches per hour
  • Because storms are isolated to scattered (spread out), the overall flood threat remains low.
• Saturday: Rain chances increase slightly to 30% to 40% across the San Antonio metro area. Timing is uncertain, but the greatest potential is during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated showers could also pop up in the morning or overnight because so much tropical moisture is around.
• Temperatures: Thanks to extra moisture and clouds, daytime highs slip a bit to 92–94°F on Friday and Saturday. Despite the tiny cool-down, heat index values will still climb to near or slightly above 100°F.

(Chart note: A column chart in the original shows these upcoming rain chances.)

Looking Ahead: Next Week

By early next week, a high atmospheric pressure system (imagine a big invisible bubble that usually keeps skies clear) is expected to build across the middle of the country. However, the center of that bubble will sit well north of Texas. That means the Lone Star State can still see scattered storm chances. San Antonio should keep slight rain chances going through at least Wednesday.

Summary

• San Antonio got a lot of rain early (19.84 inches vs. 8.74 average), then suffered 18 dry days as of Wednesday.
• A gentle Gulf disturbance will push north, bringing our first real rain hope Friday into Saturday.
• Thursday stays dry and hot: 95°F actual, feels like ~100°F.
• Friday rain chance: 20–30%; Saturday: 30–40%. Storms may be heavy but isolated, so flood risk is low.
• Next week: small rain chances linger through at least Wednesday.

FAQ

Q1: What is a “weak atmospheric disturbance” in kid terms?
A: It’s like a small, lazy spin of clouds and wind over the ocean that slowly drifts toward us, carrying moist air. Not a big storm—just a gentle weather wiggle.

Q2: Why does it “feel like” 100°F when the thermometer says 95°F?
A: That’s the heat index. When the air is humid, your sweat can’t evaporate easily, so your body feels hotter than the real number.

Q3: Could we see flooding from these storms?
A: A single storm might dump over 2 inches of rain in an hour, but because they are scattered (not covering the whole city), the overall flood threat is low. Still, watch for local puddles!

Q4: Will the rain cool things down a lot?
A: Just a little—highs drop from 95°F to about 92–94°F on Friday and Saturday, but with humidity it will still feel near 100°F.

Q5: If rain comes, does the dry streak end?
A: Yes! If San Antonio records any measurable rain Friday or Saturday, the 18-day dry streak stops. And slight chances continue into next week.