A Super Simple Look at a Padres vs. Royals Baseball Bet

How My Last Bet Went

We started the second half of the MLB season (that’s Major League Baseball, the top baseball league) with a win — just like I wanted!

• I didn’t bet on the whole game.
• Instead, I bet on the first five innings moneyline (this means I only cared who was winning after the first five parts of the game).
• I won that bet with a scary 1–0 victory (that means the team I picked won by just one run, and it was nerve-wracking!).
• The full game ended 4–1, which would have been an easier win to watch, but I’ll take the W.
• I’m hoping the next game between the Padres and Royals isn’t such a nail-biter (a game that makes you super nervous).

The San Diego Padres: Talented but Frustrating

The San Diego Padres do what they seem to do every year.

• They are a “.500 club” (they win about as many games as they lose).
• They have lots of talented players.
• They try big swings to get better (they make bold moves).
• They are not afraid to make trades (swap players with other teams).
• They spend money on the team.

But the reward so far?

• Mostly lost playoff series (they lose in the postseason).
• Nothing exciting in the regular season (the normal part of the year).

Important Point: The Padres are hitting just .226 for the year — that is dead last in the league (the worst of all teams). They have scored 379 runs (the thing that wins games), which is also the very worst in the league.

Padres Pitching and Today’s Starter

Their pitching isn’t great either, but it’s better than their hitting.

• Team ERA is 4.23 (ERA = average earned runs given up per 9 innings; lower is better), which is 17th in the league.
• Team WHIP is 1.34 (WHIP = how many batters reach base per inning; lower is better), which is 20th.

Today’s starter is Michael King, one of their better pitchers.

• He is 6–7 this season (6 wins, 7 losses).
• His ERA is 3.41 and WHIP is 1.15.
• He has been a little worse on the road than at home based on ERA, but he allowed 3 fewer earned runs in almost 20 fewer innings on the road — meaning he’s not really pitching well away from home.
• He just had two nice starts against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.
• Royals hitters are batting only .194 against him in 31 tries.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Michael King throws a pitch during the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)

The Kansas City Royals: Another Frustrating Team

The Kansas City Royals are a lot like the Padres — also one of the more frustrating teams.

• They had a great chance to win their division (a group of teams they play most).
• The Twins and White Sox were supposed to be bad this year.
• The Tigers didn’t improve their hitting much.
• The Guardians are always competitive.
• The Royals were supposed to get better, but they didn’t.

Important Point: The Royals are 21 games under .500 (they have lost 21 more games than they won). They will probably trade away players to plan for next year.

Royals Pitching and Today’s Starter

One player who might be traded is today’s starter, Seth Lugo.

• This is probably his worst year with the Royals.
• He is 3–6 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.
• But his past few years were good, so teams may still want him.
• He is better at home (3.83 ERA at home).
• He struggled in the last two months: 33.2 innings and 25 earned runs allowed. Before June, he had allowed only 28 earned runs.
• Padres hitters bat .255 against him; no one stands out except maybe Miguel Andujar.

Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo throws a pitch in the second inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Kauffman Stadium. (Peter Aiken/Imagn Images)

My Betting Thought Process

Here’s how I’m thinking about this game:

• I don’t see a good “player prop” bet (a bet on one player’s stats).
• Both pitchers should handle the other team’s hitters okay.
• The Padres can’t hit well; the Royals aren’t scary either.
• I don’t know who will win — I can argue for both teams.

Instead of picking a team, I’m betting the total (the combined score of both teams).

Steps to My Bet

1. Look at the offenses: Padres are last in runs; Royals are 20th.
2. Look at the pitchers: both are in decent split situations (home/road stats).
3. The betting line is 10.5 total runs.
4. I think that line is about 2 runs too high.
5. I bet the under 10.5 (that the teams score less than 10.5 runs total).
6. I’m betting multiple units (more than my usual amount) on this.

Important Point: I am taking the under 10.5 because both offenses are weak and both pitchers have decent matchups. I believe the total is set too high by about two runs.

Summary

The Padres and Royals are both frustrating, underperforming teams. San Diego can’t hit (worst in the league), and Kansas City is far below .500. Padres starter Michael King is solid but oddly worse on the road; Royals starter Seth Lugo is having his worst year and may be traded. Since neither team scores many runs, I’m betting the combined score stays under 10.5 runs, and I’m putting more money than usual on it.

FAQ

What does “first five innings moneyline” mean?
It means you bet on which team is winning after only the first five innings of the game, not the whole game.

What is ERA in baseball?
ERA stands for Earned Run Average. It shows how many earned runs a pitcher gives up per 9 innings. Lower is better.

What does “under 10.5” mean in betting?
It means you bet that both teams together will score fewer than 10.5 runs (so 10 or less).

Why might Seth Lugo be traded?
Because his team is doing badly and he has been good in past years, so other teams might want him for next season.

Why did the writer not bet on a team to win?
Because both teams have weaknesses and strengths, and the writer couldn’t pick a clear winner — so they bet on the total score instead.