11
Cardinals’ Move Makes This Reds Trade Absolutely Essential
The Cincinnati Reds’ Catching Puzzle: Why Trading with the Cardinals Might Be Too Pricey
The Big Picture: Stephenson Is Likely Leaving
Imagine your favorite player on your neighborhood baseball team is packing his bags. That’s basically what’s happening with Tyler Stephenson, the Cincinnati Reds’ longtime catcher.
Important Point
Stephenson is a "rental player" — this is baseball talk for someone in the final year of their contract. The Reds haven’t signed him to an extension, which strongly suggests 2026 will be his last season in Cincinnati.
He might even be traded before the season ends. So the Reds need a Plan B — and fast.
The Problem: Who Catches the Ball Next?
If Stephenson leaves, the Reds’ "catching cupboard" looks pretty bare. Here’s who they have right now:
| Player | Situation | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Trevino | Veteran backup | Can hold the fort for a few months, but past his prime as a starter |
| Will Banfield | Only other catcher on the 40-man roster | Likely a third-stringer for his whole career |
| P.J. Higgins | Triple-A backup | Same boat as Banfield — not a long-term answer |
The future hope: Alfredo Duno — one of the best catching prospects in baseball. But he’s young and inexperienced:
- Less than 100 plate appearances at Double-A (two steps below the majors)
- Realistic arrival: Opening Day 2028
- Best-case scenario: Late 2027 call-up
The Gap: The Reds need a starting catcher for at least 2027 — maybe longer. Duno isn’t ready yet.
The Tempting Idea: Trade with the Cardinals?
The St. Louis Cardinals (the Reds’ division rival) have a catching goldmine:
- Three catchers on their active roster: Iván Herrera, Pedro Pagés, Jimmy Crooks
- One more on the 40-man roster at Triple-A: Leo Bernal
- A superstar prospect waiting in the wings: Rainiel Rodriguez
They have too many catchers and are widely expected to trade at least one before the deadline. On paper, a Reds–Cardinals trade makes sense.
The Catch: Why This Trade Is a Bad Idea
Here’s why the Reds should pump the brakes on a blockbuster deal with St. Louis:
1. These Aren’t Rentals — They’re Long-Term Assets
All Cardinals catchers are under team control through at least 2029. That means:
- They’re not short-term fixes
- The Cardinals have zero pressure to trade them cheap
- The price will be sky-high
2. Controllable Catching Is the Most Expensive Currency in Baseball
Real-World Example
Last year, the San Diego Padres traded a huge package for Freddy Fermin — a 30-year-old career backup catcher. That’s how valuable "team control" is.
3. The "Division Rival Tax"
Trading within your division costs extra. The Cardinals would charge the Reds even more because they’d have to face that catcher 13+ times a year.
4. The Cost Would Hurt the Reds’ Future
To get someone like Iván Herrera, the Reds would likely have to give up:
- A top prospect (like a future star hitter or pitcher)
- Or a young, controllable arm from their pitching staff
Bottom Line: Giving up premium talent to a division rival for a player you might not even need in 2028 (when Duno arrives) is bad business.
What Should the Reds Do Instead?
Step-by-Step Smarter Approach:
- Wait for the offseason — More catchers hit free agency; prices drop
- Sign a veteran bridge catcher — Someone solid for 1–2 years (think: Tucker Barnhart, Austin Barnes, Gary Sánchez types)
- Keep developing Duno — Let him ripen at his own pace
- Explore non-division trades — Target teams outside the NL Central with catching surplus
- Use internal options for now — Trevino + Banfield/Higgins can cover the rest of 2026
Summary
- Tyler Stephenson is almost certainly gone after 2026.
- The Reds have no ready-made replacement behind him.
- Top prospect Alfredo Duno won’t arrive until ~2028.
- The Cardinals have extra catchers — but they’re expensive, long-term assets.
- Trading with a division rival for controllable catching would cost a king’s ransom (top prospect + division tax).
- Better path: Sign a short-term veteran in the offseason, let Duno develop, and avoid a panic trade.
FAQ
Why can’t the Reds just promote Alfredo Duno now?
He’s still very young and has barely played at Double-A. Catchers take longer to develop because they have to learn pitching staffs, game-calling, and framing. Rushing him could ruin his confidence and development.
What does "team control through 2029" mean?
It means the Cardinals own that player’s rights for the next several seasons at a reasonable (pre-free agency) salary. That makes the player incredibly valuable — like having a coupon for a great player at a discount price for years.
What’s the "division rival tax"?
Teams hate making rivals better. If the Cardinals trade a catcher to the Reds, they’ll face him ~13 times a year. So they demand extra value (better prospects) to offset that pain.
Could the Reds trade for a catcher from a non-rival team?
Absolutely! Teams like the Guardians, Rays, or Dodgers often have catching depth. Trading outside the division avoids the "tax" and keeps the talent away from direct competitors.
Is Jose Trevino really that bad?
Not "bad" — he’s a great defensive catcher and clubhouse leader. But at 32, his offense has declined, and he’s best used as a platoon/backup, not an everyday starter for a contending team.
Let the Cardinals keep their catching hoard. The Reds’ smart move is patience — not a panic trade that mortgages the future for a player Duno might replace in two years anyway.
