2026 MLB Awards Shakeup: August’s MVP & Cy Young Rankings
MLB Awards Watch: Who’s Winning the Hardware with 5 Weeks Left?
By Bradford Doolittle, ESPN | August 24, 2026
What’s This All About?
Hey baseball fans! We’re in the home stretch of the 2026 MLB season—just five weeks left—and the races for the big awards are heating up. Think of this as your "report card" for the season’s best players, pitchers, rookies, and managers.
We’re using a special tool called AXE (more on that in a sec) to see who’s actually performing the best, not just who has the flashiest stats. And spoiler alert: some big names have swapped places since last month!
What is AXE? (The Secret Sauce)
IMPORTANT: How We Measure Greatness
AXE isn’t an actual axe—it’s a smart rating system that blends together the most trusted baseball stats (like bWAR, fWAR, Win Probability Added, and Championship Probability Added) into one simple number.
- 100 = Average player
- 110 = Really good (1 standard deviation above average)
- 120 = Superstar level (2 standard deviations above)
- 130+ = MVP/Cy Young territory
- 90 = Below average
It’s like taking 4 different teacher’s grades and averaging them for a fair final score. For managers, there’s EARL, which looks at things like beating preseason expectations and winning close games.
Most Valuable Player (MVP)
American League: The Triple Crown Chase
| Rank | Player | Team | AXE Score | Why They’re Here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | 148.1 | Leading AL in AVG, HR, RBI (Triple Crown pace!) |
| 2 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | 143.0 | Elite hitter + speed + gold glove defense |
| 3 | Kevin McGonigle | Detroit Tigers | 134.4 | Rookie sensation (also #1 AL Rookie!) |
| 4 | Willson Contreras | Boston Red Sox | 129.5 | Offensive juggernaut behind the plate |
| 5 | Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | 129.0 | Do-it-all center fielder |
The Storyline: Alvarez vs. Witt
- Alvarez grabbed the lead July 11 and hasn’t let go. He’s chasing the Triple Crown (leading league in AVG, HR, RBI)—baseball’s rarest feat.
- Witt missed time with a knee injury but is on fire since returning (channeling George Brett vibes). Royals are suddenly the AL’s hottest team.
- The gap is real but closable—Witt needs a historic finish + Royals playoff push to overtake Alvarez.
MARKET VS. MATH ALERT
Betting markets love Junior Caminero (White Sox) as the #2 threat because of his big HR/RBI numbers. But AXE says he’s only 9th! Why? Caminero hits lots of "empty" homers (low leverage), doesn’t run/field well, and his RBIs are mostly from having tons of opportunities—not clutch performance.
National League: The Showdown of the Century
| Rank | Player | Team | AXE Score | Why They’re Here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) | Chicago Cubs | 163.3 | Best defender in baseball + elite offense + clutch moments |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani | LA Dodgers | 154.7 | Still historic as DH-only, but injury sidelined his pitching |
| 3 | Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers | 133.2 | Defensive wizard at 2B + emerging bat |
| 4 | JJ Wetherholt | St. Louis Cardinals | 131.7 | Rookie phenom (also #1 NL Rookie!) |
| 5 | Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | 131.5 | 5-tool superstar |
The Storyline: PCA Takes the Crown
- July 21: AXE flipped—PCA overtook Ohtani
- August 5: Betting markets agreed after their epic Wrigley Field duel (both hit 2 HRs!)
- PCA’s case: Leads Cubs’ playoff push, best defender in MLB, matches Ohtani at plate, crushes him on bases
- Ohtani’s path: Needs a 2024-style tear (.628/.667/1.186 over 10 games!) + maybe return to mound + Dodgers big finish
KEY INSIGHT: "This is Crow-Armstrong’s race to lose… but it’s not over." Ohtani’s "down year" is still better than 99% of players ever.
Cy Young Award (Best Pitcher)
American League: The Yankees/Blue Jays Duel
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | AXE Score | Key Stat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees | 145.3 | 1.14 ERA on road (15 starts!) |
| 2 | Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays | 145.1 | Carrying no-hitters deep into games |
| 3 | Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians | 137.8 | Also #2 AL Rookie! |
| 4 | Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays | 129.4 | Consistent excellence |
| 5 | Louis Varland | Toronto Blue Jays | 128.2 | Breakout sophomore |
The Storyline: Razor-Thin Margin
- Schlittler & Cease are TIED in both major WAR versions—this is a dead heat.
- Schlittler’s weakness: 3.71 ERA at Yankee Stadium vs 1.14 on road
- Cease’s momentum: Hottest pitcher in AL since last Awards Watch (per AXE)
- Decider: Who dominates in high-stakes September starts? Both teams in playoff hunt.
SAD SCHEDULING NOTE: This weekend was the last Yankees/Blue Jays matchup of the year. Baseball’s schedule makers…
National League: Three Aces, One Trophy
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | AXE Score | Signature Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristopher Sanchez | Philadelphia Phillies | 154.1 | Volume & winning (only NL 20-game winner threat) |
| 2 | Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers | 150.5 | Dominance (1.68 ERA, 39% K-rate, 68.2 avg game score) |
| 3 | Jesus Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies | 140.7 | Phillies’ 1-2 punch |
| 4 | Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds | 140.6 | Rookie sensation |
| 5 | Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves | 140.4 | Resurgent legend (1.66 FIP!) |
The Storyline: Narrative vs. Numbers
- Media loves Misiorowski & Sale (flashy K’s, low ERA)
- AXE loves Sanchez (consistency, depth, WINS)
- Sanchez’s slump: 9 runs allowed at KC pre-ASG scared voters, but 7-1, 2.18 ERA since
- Three-way tiebreaker: Misiorowski = dominance, Sanchez = volume, Sale = recent heat
MARKETS SAY: Sale is the betting favorite over Misiorowski, with Sanchez close third. AXE sees all three as legit.
Rookie of the Year
American League: The Tigers’ Gem vs. Guardians’ Ace
| Rank | Player | Team | AXE | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin McGonigle | Detroit Tigers | 134.4 | SS/2B, leadoff hitter |
| 2 | Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians | 130.7 | Starting pitcher |
| 3 | Tristan Peters | Chicago White Sox | 120.0 | OF |
| 4 | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | 117.7 | 1B/DH, power threat |
| 5 | Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox | 117.7 | Pitcher |
The Storyline: Lineup Shuffling Hurts McGonigle
- McGonigle led wire-to-wire since May 1 but lead shrinking
- Weird stat: Hits .311 leading off vs .243 elsewhere
- Manager A.J. Hinch moved him around in August (2nd, 3rd, cleanup)—he hit .229 in those games
- Messick closing fast: 8 straight starts with ≤2 ER, 1.88 ERA since July 1 (bad luck = only 2 wins)
BETTORS LOVE DINGERS: Markets have Murakami #2 (40 HR pace, 100 BB pace) despite AXE ranking him 4th. If he stays healthy + White Sox make playoffs, he could crash the party.
National League: The Cardinal Way vs. Mets’ Power
| Rank | Player | Team | AXE | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Wetherholt | St. Louis Cardinals | 131.7 | 2B, elite defense + baserunning |
| 2 | Carson Benge | New York Mets | 116.3 | OF, 5-tool |
| 3 | Nolan McLean | New York Mets | 113.1 | Two-way? |
| 4 | Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers | 112.5 | Pitcher |
| 5 | Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | 112.4 | 1B, 98 RBI (NL lead!) |
The Storyline: Defense vs. Offense
- Wetherholt led every day since May 1—but hitting .207/.323/.321 since All-Star Break, 0 HR vs LHP all year
- His AXE stays high because: Platinum Glove defense at 2B (PCA/Witt tier) + elite baserunning
- Benge surging: .319/.369/.504 post-ASG + great defense + energy for hot Mets
- Stewart = Market darling: 98 RBI (NL lead!) but Wetherholt beats him in Win Probability Added
THE VOTER QUESTION: Will writers vote for a .207 hitter—even with historic defense? Or flip to Benge/Stewart if they keep raking?
Manager of the Year
American League: Venable’s White Sox Miracle
| Rank | Manager | Team | EARL Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Venable | Chicago White Sox | 113.9 |
| 2 | Kevin Cash | Tampa Bay Rays | 111.9 |
| 3 | Stephen Vogt | Cleveland Guardians | 101.4 |
| 4 | John Schneider | Toronto Blue Jays | 100.6 |
| 5 | Aaron Boone | New York Yankees | 100.1 |
The Verdict: Simple as It Gets
If White Sox win AL Central → Venable wins. Period.
Even if they don’t win division, he might still win. Yes, he had some funny mishaps (lost track of mound visits, didn’t walk PCA before walk-off HR). But no one cares about "trees" when the "forest" is a worst-to-first turnaround.
National League: Murphy’s Three-Peat Quest?
| Rank | Manager | Team | EARL Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pat Murphy | Milwaukee Brewers | 109.9 |
| 2 | Clayton McCullough | Miami Marlins | 109.1 |
| 3 | Terry Francona | Cincinnati Reds | 104.7 |
| 4 | Craig Stammen | San Diego Padres | 103.9 |
| 5 | Craig Counsell | Chicago Cubs | 103.7 |
The Verdict: History in the Making
- Murphy would be 10th manager with 3+ wins—but FIRST to win 3 straight years
- Voter fatigue? Maybe, but who else deserves it?
- Only threat: McCullough if Marlins make miraculous playoff run
- Short of that → Murphy’s trophy case gets another shelf
Summary: The Cheat Sheet
| Award | AL Leader | NL Leader | Race Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | Yordan Alvarez (148.1) | Pete Crow-Armstrong (163.3) | NL: PCA leads but Ohtani lurks. AL: Alvarez comfortable but Witt charging. |
| Cy Young | Cam Schlittler (145.3) | Cristopher Sanchez (154.1) | AL: Dead heat Schlittler/Cease. NL: 3-way battle (Sanchez/Misiorowski/Sale). |
| Rookie of Year | Kevin McGonigle (134.4) | JJ Wetherholt (131.7) | AL: McGonigle fading, Messick rising. NL: Wetherholt’s bat vs Benge’s surge. |
| Manager of Year | Will Venable (113.9) | Pat Murphy (109.9) | AL: Venable near lock. NL: Murphy 3-peat unless Marlins miracle. |
Bottom Line: None of these are settled. Five weeks = 35 games = plenty of time for heroics, slumps, injuries, and playoff drama to rewrite every story.
FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered
1. What’s the difference between AXE and WAR?
AXE is a "super-stat" that averages FOUR different WAR-type metrics (bWAR, fWAR, WPA, CPA) into one number. Think of it as the "consensus opinion" of all the smartest stats, scaled so 100 = average. It reduces bias from any single system.
2. Why does Shohei Ohtani still rank 2nd in NL MVP if he’s not pitching?
Because even as a DH-only player, he’s historically great at hitting. His 154.7 AXE would lead most seasons. The gap to PCA (163.3) is real but close—especially if Ohtani gets hot or returns to the mound.
3. How can a rookie (Kevin McGonigle) be 3rd in AL MVP voting?
He’s having an all-time great rookie season—elite contact, on-base, defense, baserunning. AXE values total contribution, not just homers. He’s more valuable than almost every veteran in the AL right now.
4. Why do betting markets disagree with AXE on players like Caminero and Murakami?
Markets overvalue counting stats (HR, RBI) and undervalue defense, baserunning, and leverage. AXE captures the complete picture. Bettors love dingers; AXE loves winning baseball.
5. Can a manager win Manager of the Year on a last-place team?
Almost never. EARL (the manager AXE) heavily weights exceeding preseason expectations and winning close games. Venable’s White Sox were projected awful—they’re now contending. That’s the recipe.
Data through August 22, 2026. All AXE/EARL ratings via ESPN Analytics. Betting odds via DraftKings.