Gotterup Poised to Pounce: BMW Championship Weekend Charge
BMW Championship Round 2: Wyndham Clark Takes Charge, Chris Gotterup Looks Like a Steal, and Gary Woodland Might Fade
Written by Joe Idone | 20 hours ago | 3 min read
What Happened on Friday? The Leaderboard Shakes Out
After Thursday’s five-way tie at the top of the BMW Championship, Friday brought some much-needed separation at Bellerive Country Club. Here’s the simple version of where things stand:
- Wyndham Clark (Reigning U.S. Open Champ) – He’s in total control. After a bogey-free 64 on Thursday, he backed it up with another clean card on Friday. He also led the entire field in Strokes Gained: Approach (a fancy stat that measures how good your iron shots are compared to the average pro).
- Gary Woodland (11 under) – The feel-good story of the week. At 42, he’s hitting the ball farther than almost anyone (lead the field in ball speed!). He closed his round with two birdies to grab solo second. But… he’s right on the bubble for making the TOUR Championship (the season-ending playoff for the top 30).
- Patrick Cantlay (8 under) – Mr. Consistent made his predicted move up the board.
- Scottie Scheffler (3 under) – The world #1 looked like himself again Friday, rallying on the back nine to salvage his week.
Important Point: Bellerive is playing easier than expected. The course isn’t punishing missed fairways — it’s rewarding distance. That means players who hit it far and can reach par-5s in two have a huge advantage. Expect a wild weekend with lots of leaderboard movement.
Updated Odds to Win (DraftKings)
| Player | Odds | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Wyndham Clark | +210 | Bet $100 to win $210 (he’s the clear favorite) |
| Gary Woodland | +500 | Bet $100 to win $500 |
| J.J. Spaun | +750 | Bet $100 to win $750 |
| Chris Gotterup | +850 | Bet $100 to win $850 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1500 | Bet $100 to win $1,500 |
| Sungjae Im | +1500 | Bet $100 to win $1,500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1500 | Bet $100 to win $1,500 |
Note: Odds change fast! These are from Friday night.
DRAW (Smart Bet): Chris Gotterup to Win (+770)
Why He’s the Pick of the Week
- He’s a winning machine – In the last 13 months, Scottie Scheffler has 5 wins. Gotterup has 4. That’s elite company, yet nobody’s talking about him for Player of the Year.
- Perfect position – He’s only 3 shots back with two rounds to go. That’s striking distance.
- Course fit is ideal – Bellerive rewards power and speed. Gotterup has both. He can attack par-5s and hit short irons into greens even from the rough.
- He’s doing it ugly – He shot 3-under Friday without his best stuff (lost strokes chipping and putting). Imagine if his short game shows up?
- Breakout moment – If he wins here, he doesn’t just join the Player of the Year conversation — he leads it.
Bottom Line: You’re getting a proven winner at nearly 8-to-1 who fits the course perfectly and is playing well enough to contend. That’s value.
FADE (Avoid Bet): Gary Woodland
Why the Feel-Good Story Might End Badly
- We’ve likely seen his peak – Two straight days of career-level golf at age 42 is amazing… but hard to sustain.
- Pressure is different this week – He’s playing for a TOUR Championship spot. That kind of stress can tighten up even the best swings.
- History says be careful – Woodland has faded on Sundays multiple times this season. Last week in Memphis? He shot a 74 (+4) on Sunday — his worst round of the tournament.
- Sell high – If you backed him early, great! Now’s the time to lock in profit by betting against him in weekend matchups.
Root for the story. Bet on the numbers. Woodland’s ball speed is incredible, but weekend pressure + regression to the mean = risky bet.
Key Takeaways (TL;DR)
- Wyndham Clark is the real deal — dominant approach play, zero mistakes.
- Bellerive = Bombers Paradise — Distance > Accuracy this week.
- Chris Gotterup is the best value on the board — proven winner, great fit, low ownership.
- Gary Woodland is a great story, but a dangerous bet for the weekend.
- Scottie Scheffler & Patrick Cantlay are lurking — never count out the best players in the world.
Summary
Friday at the BMW Championship separated the contenders from the pretenders. Wyndham Clark looks unbeatable right now, but Chris Gotterup at +770 offers massive value — he’s won 4 times in a year, fits the course, and is only 3 back. Meanwhile, Gary Woodland’s magical run feels due for a reality check on the weekend. If you’re betting, draw Gotterup, fade Woodland, and keep an eye on Scheffler and Cantlay for a Sunday charge.
FAQ
Q: What is “Strokes Gained: Approach” and why does it matter?
A: It measures how many strokes a player gains (or loses) on approach shots (irons into greens) compared to the field average. Leading this stat means Clark is hitting his irons better than anyone else — a huge sign of control.
Q: What does “on the bubble for the TOUR Championship” mean?
A: Only the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings make the season-ending TOUR Championship. Woodland is right on the cutoff line — a good finish here locks him in; a bad one sends him home.
Q: Why is Bellerive “gettable” and what does that mean for betting?
A: The rough isn’t thick, and the greens are receptive. Players who hit it far can miss fairways and still hit greens. That favors long hitters like Gotterup, Clark, and Scheffler — not just accurate drivers.
Q: What’s the difference between a “Draw” and a “Fade” in betting?
A: Draw = a bet you like (good value, strong case). Fade = a bet you avoid (overvalued, likely to regress). Think: “Draw = buy, Fade = sell.”
Q: Should I bet on Scottie Scheffler at +1500?
A: He’s the best player in the world and only 3 under. If he gets hot on the weekend, he can win from here. But at +1500, you’re paying a “Scheffler tax” — the price is inflated because of his name. Gotterup at +770 is a much better number for a similar profile.