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US Fighter Force ‘Running on Fumes’: Biggs’ Stark Warning
America’s Fighter Jet Shortage: Why the Sky Isn’t the Limit Anymore
The Big Picture: Airpower Is the Backbone of US Defense
Imagine the United States military as a big team. The Air Force is like the team’s star player who can run fast, jump high, and cover the whole field. For decades, America has counted on its fighter jets to:
- Deter bad actors (like China) from starting fights
- Reassure allies in Europe that we’ve got their backs
- Defend the US homeland
- Respond to crises in places like the Middle East
- Stay ready for a major war if one breaks out
Important Point: All these missions assume one thing: enough fighter jets will be ready to fly when needed. That assumption is now cracking.
The Problem: The Fleet Is Shrinking While Missions Grow
The Numbers Don’t Lie
| Statistic | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Oldest fleet in 78 years | The average fighter jet is older than the pilots flying them |
| Smallest fleet in history | Fewer jets than at any point since the Air Force was created in 1947 |
| 2-to-1 divestment ratio | For every 2 old jets retired, only 1 new one is bought |
| Below legal minimum | Already under the congressionally mandated floor of 1,145 primary mission fighters |
| Rock bottom coming in 2028 | Inventory projected to hit its lowest point in fiscal year 2028 |
Why This Matters (In Plain English)
Think of it like a delivery company with trucks:
- Fewer trucks = fewer deliveries per day
- Older trucks = more time in the repair shop, less time on the road
- No backup trucks = if one breaks down, a delivery gets missed
- Can’t handle a surge = if a huge order comes in (a war), you can’t keep up
The Air Force has:
- Fewer jets for training new pilots
- Fewer jets available during maintenance
- Fewer options for commanders in a crisis
- Less ability to absorb losses if deterrence fails
The Budget Gap: 62 vs. 72+ Jets Per Year
What the Air Force Asked For (FY2027)
- 38 F-35A (stealthy, high-tech fighter)
- 24 F-15EX (modern version of a proven workhorse)
- Total: 62 fighters
What Experts Say We Need
- At least 72 per year (National Guard leaders’ minimum ask)
- Goal: 100+ per year as factories can produce more
Important Point: The difference between 62 and 72 seems small in one year. But over 5–10 years, it decides whether the fleet keeps shrinking or starts growing.
The Bipartisan Fix: What Congress Is Being Asked To Do
Rep. Sheri Biggs (an Air National Guard lieutenant colonel with 30+ years of service) led a bipartisan letter with 12 other representatives urging Congress to:
- Buy no fewer than 72 fighters per year in the FY27 budget
- Scale up to 100+ per year as industry capacity allows
- Approve multiyear contracts for F-35A and F-15EX (saves money, guarantees production)
- Maintain at least 57 combat-coded fighter squadrons (ready-to-fight units)
- Require better reporting on fighter recapitalization across Active, Guard, and Reserve components
Why Timing Is Everything: The "Late 2020s Gap"
The Trap: Retiring Before Replacing
Important Point: Retiring old jets before new ones arrive doesn’t just make the fleet newer—it makes it smaller.
- A jet arriving in the 2030s cannot fix a squadron shortfall in the late 2020s
- Future planes (like the F-47 or collaborative combat drones) are great—but they don’t exist yet
- Commanders need jets today, not promises for tomorrow
It’s Not a Beauty Contest: We Need All the Platforms
| Platform | Role | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| F-35A | 5th-gen stealth fighter | Core of modern air dominance |
| F-15EX | Heavy payload, long range | Homeland defense, replaces aging F-15Cs fast |
| F-22 | Air superiority king | Bridge until next-gen (F-47) arrives in numbers |
| F-47 (NGAD) | Next-gen air dominance | Future, but not ready yet |
| Collaborative Combat Aircraft | Loyal wingman drones | Force multipliers, still in development |
Bottom line: These aren’t competitors. They’re teammates. The question isn’t "which one?"—it’s "do we have enough of all of them?"
The Pacific Pressure Cooker: Why China Changes the Math
- 600+ operational nuclear warheads (mid-2024) → 1,000+ by 2030
- Modernizing conventional, missile, maritime, space, cyber, AND air forces
- This isn’t about matching China jet-for-jet
- It’s about a large, sustained, sophisticated challenge across the board
- A shrinking US fighter fleet = less room to handle China and everything else
Progress, But Not Victory: The FY27 NDAA Step Forward
The House-passed FY27 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) includes:
- Higher fighter inventory requirements
- Expanded multiyear procurement authority
Important Point: This is a meaningful step—but not the finish line. The final FY27 defense bills must fully align procurement with national defense strategy.
Summary: Close the Gap Before Conflict Exposes It
- US strategy demands global airpower—but the fighter fleet is the oldest, smallest, and shrinking
- Retirements outpace replacements → a dangerous gap in the late 2020s
- 62 jets/year isn’t enough—experts say 72+ minimum, 100+ goal
- Multiyear contracts save money and secure production lines
- All platforms matter—F-35, F-15EX, F-22, future systems—working together
- China’s rise makes the gap urgent in the Pacific
- Congress has started acting—but must finish the job in final FY27 bills
The stakes are simple: If deterrence fails, commanders need options. Not excuses. Not "we’re working on it." Jets. Ready. Now.
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
Why can’t we just keep flying the old jets longer?
Old jets cost more to maintain, break down more often, and can’t survive against modern defenses. It’s like driving a 1990s car in a modern demolition derby—it might run, but it won’t protect you.
What’s a "combat-coded squadron"?
A squadron is a unit of ~18–24 jets + pilots + maintainers. "Combat-coded" means it’s trained, equipped, and certified to go to war today—not just for training or tests. The letter asks for 57 of these ready-to-fight units.
What is "multiyear procurement authority" and why does it matter?
Normally, Congress buys jets one year at a time. Multiyear authority lets the Air Force sign a 3–5 year contract. This:
- Lowers per-jet cost (bulk discount)
- Gives factories stability to hire workers and buy materials
- Prevents "stop-go" production that wastes money
Why does the Air National Guard matter for fighter numbers?
The Guard flies ~30% of the fighter fleet and often handles homeland defense. If they get old jets while Active Duty gets new ones, the whole team gets weaker. The letter demands Guard inclusion in all recapitalization plans.
Isn’t 100 fighters a year unrealistic for industry?
Not if we plan for it. Factories can scale—but they need steady, predictable orders. Multiyear contracts + consistent funding = industry investment in capacity. The "100+" is a goal as industry allows, not a rigid mandate from Day 1.
Rep. Sheri Biggs represents South Carolina’s Third District. A lieutenant colonel in the Air National Guard and Air War College graduate, she served as a medical crew director on combat missions. Views expressed are her own and do not reflect official DoD or Air National Guard policy.
