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Open Favorite Scheffler? Bettors Are Quietly Backing These Europeans Instead
Scottie Scheffler Isn’t as Big a Favorite as Usual for the 2026 Open Championship — Here’s Why!
Who Is the Favorite?
Scottie Scheffler is the reigning Champion Golfer of the Year (that just means he won the Open Championship last year). He is heading into this year’s Open Championship as the favorite to keep the famous trophy called the Claret Jug.
But something interesting is happening:
- He just missed the cut (meaning he didn’t play well enough to continue) for the first time in almost four years at last week’s Scottish Open.
- He will face tough competition from players who are from Europe and playing close to home.
Because of this, he is not as heavily favored as he usually is.
What Are the Odds?
Odds are like a number that shows how likely someone is to win and how much money you’d make if you bet on them.
- Scheffler is the +680 favorite to win the 2026 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England. These numbers come from DK Sports bookmaking lines as of Wednesday afternoon.
- These are his longest odds to win a major tournament since the 2023 Open, when he was +700 co-favorite with Rory McIlroy.
Important Point: Longer odds mean the bookmakers (the people who set betting prices) think he is a little less likely to win than before.
The Other Top Players
Here are the next best players according to the odds:
- Rory McIlroy — +830
- Matt Fitzpatrick — +1750
- Tommy Fleetwood — +1750
- Jon Rahm — +1950
Why Did Scheffler’s Odds Get Longer?
Johnny Avello, who is the director at DK Sports, told ESPN:
- His team changed Scheffler’s odds after his surprising missed cut in Scotland.
- But they also think the longer odds are because other European players are playing really well.
- And, maybe even more important, a lot of bettors are putting money on those European players.
The European Players Drawing Bets
Matt Fitzpatrick is a big deal for the bookmakers:
- He is the largest "liability" (meaning the bookmakers would lose the most money if he wins) at BetMGM.
- He is also a risk at other places like Caesars, where he got the most bets and his odds dropped to 10-1.
Avello said:
"Initially we adjusted for him on each and every tournament. Sometimes money comes in on guys, we feel it’s a fair price and we just keep it there. So you won’t see a lot of adjustment on his odds for this particular tournament from what we opened up at [this week], but it is a big adjustment from where he was a year ago because now he seems to be one of the top contenders in every tournament that he plays in for certainly the last two, three months."
Other European players getting attention include:
- Alex Fitzpatrick (Matt’s brother) at 66-1 — playing well but still a long shot
- Rory McIlroy
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Viktor Hovland at 34-1
- Robert MacIntyre at 35-1
- Tyrrell Hatton at 38-1
- Justin Rose at 41-1
Tom Kim: The Breakout Star
One player to watch is Tom Kim:
- He is 24 years old.
- He just won the Scottish Open on Sunday after finishing third in the U.S. Open.
- He opened at 150-1 to win the Open Championship and dropped to 55-1 after his win.
- One lucky bettor at DK Sports won over $4 million by betting $47,700 on Kim at 84-1 to win the Scottish Open.
Anthony Salleroli from Caesars said:
"He’s an absolute TGL sensation, he gets the crowd all jazzed up. He’s very much live. People look at the Scottish Open as a tune up, so if you win the Scottish Open as a tune up prior to coming into the British Open, you’re in outstanding form and ready to take on a links course."
(A "links course" is a type of golf course by the sea, like Royal Birkdale.)
Watch the Weather and the Course
Bookmakers are being careful about Royal Birkdale because:
- The course is expected to be abnormally fast, firm, and dry.
- Salleroli said his team is taking a "wait-and-see" approach to the weather and how much the grounds crew waters the grass.
- Matt Wall from BetMGM said: "The fast and firm Royal Birkdale will provide a spectacular golf tournament and ask questions that these players rarely face."
Important Point: The unusual dry and fast course could change everything, so bookmakers are waiting to see what happens before making big changes to bets.
Summary
Scottie Scheffler is still the favorite to win the 2026 Open Championship, but his odds are longer than usual because he struggled last week and European players are playing great. Matt Fitzpatrick and Tom Kim are getting a lot of bettor attention. The fast, dry course at Royal Birkdale makes this year’s tournament extra tricky to predict!
FAQ
1. What does "missed the cut" mean?
It means a player didn’t score well enough in the first part of a tournament to continue playing in the final rounds.
2. What is the Claret Jug?
It is the famous trophy given to the winner of the Open Championship, which is a major golf tournament.
3. Why are longer odds a big deal for Scheffler?
Longer odds mean bookmakers think he is less likely to win than they did before, showing he is not as dominant this time.
4. Who is Tom Kim and why is he popular now?
Tom Kim is a 24-year-old golfer who won the Scottish Open right before the 2026 Open Championship, so bettors think he is in great shape to win.
5. What is a "links course"?
A links course is a golf course usually built on sandy coastal land by the sea, like Royal Birkdale, and it often has tricky wind and firm ground.
