What the Numbers Said Before the CF Montreal vs. Toronto Match

Understanding the Match Prediction

Imagine we are trying to guess what will happen in a soccer game before it starts. We looked at all the available data—this means everything we could find, like how the teams played recently and how good the players have been—up until one hour before the game kicked off.

Based on that info, here is what we thought was most likely to happen:

• CF Montreal winning: 54.03% chance
• A draw (no one wins): 24.11% chance
• Toronto winning: 21.85% chance

Important Point: A 54.03% chance means out of 100 similar guesses, CF Montreal would win about 54 times. It is the most likely result, but not guaranteed!

Most Likely Scorelines

A "scoreline" is just the final score, like 1-0 (one team scores once, the other doesn’t).

If CF Montreal Won

We thought these were the most likely ways they’d win:

• 1-0 (Montreal scores 1, Toronto scores 0): 11.11% chance
• 2-1 (Montreal 2, Toronto 1): 9.84% chance
• 2-0 (Montreal 2, Toronto 0): 9.28% chance

If It Was a Draw

• The most likely tie score was 1-1: 11.1% chance

If Toronto Won

• The most likely win for them was 0-1 (Toronto scores 1, Montreal 0): 6.3% chance

The Actual Result

• The real final score was 0-0 (no goals at all)
• We had predicted a 0-0 result with a 6.7% chance of happening

Important Point: Even though 0-0 was not the most likely score, it was still possible—our data gave it almost a 7% chance!

Summary

Before the match, our full data review said CF Montreal was the favorite to win at 54.03%. A draw was next most likely at 24.11%, and Toronto win at 21.85%. The top predicted scores were 1-0 for Montreal, 1-1 for a draw, and 0-1 for Toronto. The actual 0-0 finish was guessed at 6.7% likelihood.

FAQ

Q1: What does "probability" mean in simple words?
A: It is just a way to say how likely something is to happen, shown as a percentage out of 100.

Q2: Why didn’t we predict the real score of 0-0?
A: We did! We said there was a 6.7% chance of 0-0. It was just less likely than other scores based on the data.

Q3: What does "up until an hour before kickoff" mean?
A: It means we used all team and player info from up to one hour before the game started—nothing after that.

Q4: Is CF Montreal definitely better because they had 54%?
A: No. 54% means they were more likely to win, but Toronto or a draw could still happen—and did end in a draw (0-0).