11
The One Trend the Giants Must Run From Immediately
Why Giants Fans Are Right to Doubt a Quick Bryce Eldridge Extension
What the Poll Tells Us
An SB Nation poll recently asked Giants fans: "Do you think the team will sign Bryce Eldridge to a contract extension this year?" Only 29% said yes.
That might sound low, but the author thinks this shows real wisdom from the fanbase. Here’s why.
Important Point
The poll asked for a prediction (what will happen), not an opinion (what should happen). But most fans mix the two. They know the team’s history, the upcoming labor situation, and whether Eldridge has actually earned a big deal yet.
The Big Trend: Shortstops Get the Big Money
If you look at recent contract extensions for young players before they even hit free agency, a clear pattern emerges. Teams are handing out huge deals to shortstops (and other up-the-middle defenders).
| Player | Team | Contract | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Wilson | A’s | 7 years, $70M | Shortstop |
| JJ Wetherholt | Cardinals | 8 years, $112.5M | Shortstop |
| Cooper Pratt | Brewers | 8 years, $50.75M | Shortstop |
| Colt Emerson | Mariners | 8 years, $95M | Shortstop (some 3B) |
| Konnor Griffin | Pirates | 9 years, $140M | Shortstop |
| Kevin McGonigle | Tigers | 8 years, $150M | Shortstop (some 3B) |
Why Shortstops?
Shortstop is the hardest defensive position (besides catcher). A player who can play great defense there AND hit well is incredibly rare. Teams pay a premium for that combination.
What About Other Positions?
There are a few recent extensions for non-shortstops, but they tell a different story.
The Outfield Examples
| Player | Team | Contract | Position | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence Butler | A’s | 7 years, $65.5M | Outfield | Signed at 23. Had one good year, then struggled badly. |
| Jackson Chourio | Brewers | 8 years, $82M | Outfield | Good hitter (~20% above average), solid defender. Fair deal for both sides. |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | Braves | 8 years, $100M | Outfield | Was on a Hall of Fame track. Injuries and power drop since. Still a steal for Atlanta. |
The lesson: Even great outfielders carry more risk. Acuña’s deal looks amazing now, but at the time, it was a gamble on a generational talent. Eldridge isn’t there yet.
The Ghost of Jonathan Singleton
The Giants’ front office includes veterans who remember Jonathan Singleton.
- Who: Astros first baseman (like Eldridge)
- Deal: 5 years, $10M (up to $35M with options) in 2014
- Result: Hit .171/.290/.331 in first two seasons. Astros cut ties.
Important Point
Adjusted for inflation, that’s ~$49M today — but MLB salaries have grown way faster than regular inflation. The Giants’ advisors remember the backlash from that deal. It makes them cautious.
The Giants’ Way: Cautious with Young Players
The organization has a history of avoiding financial risks on young players — for better or worse.
Fans know this. They know:
- The front office prefers "wait and see"
- Ownership doesn’t love locking in unproven guys
- There’s a potential lockout coming (labor dispute), which makes teams even more careful
So What Should Happen With Eldridge?
The Author’s Take: Wait and See
Eldridge’s 2026 stats (256 plate appearances):
- .259 batting average
- .359 on-base percentage
- .459 slugging percentage
- Age: 21
That’s good — especially for a 21-year-old at first base/DH. But it’s not generational.
Compare to 21-year-old Juan Soto: .351/.490/.695
The Recommended Approach
- Let him play out the season — He’s still adjusting to MLB pitching
- Go year-to-year (arbitration) — See if he forces the team’s hand
- Re-evaluate after 2026 — If he hits 30+ HRs and posts an .900+ OPS, then talk extension
Key Insight
First basemen and DHs are easier to find than elite shortstops. The "surplus value" (performance vs. pay) matters, but the risk is higher because the position is less scarce.
Summary
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| Will the Giants extend Eldridge in 2026? | Unlikely (only 29% of fans think so) |
| Why are other young guys getting extended? | Most are shortstops — premium defensive position + hitting = rare value |
| What about outfielders/first basemen? | Fewer deals, more risk (Butler struggled, Acuña got hurt) |
| What’s the Giants’ track record? | Cautious; burned by past risks (Singleton) |
| Best path forward? | Year-to-year, prove it first, pay later |
FAQ
Why do teams extend players before free agency?
Simple answer: To save money. If a player becomes a star, their free-agent price skyrockets. Locking them in early (buying out "arbitration years" and maybe a year or two of free agency) can be a huge bargain — if the player pans out.
What is "arbitration"?
ELI5 version: After ~3 years in the majors, players can negotiate their salary for the next few years. A neutral arbitrator picks a number between what the team offers and what the player asks for. It’s like a raise each year until free agency.
Is Eldridge a bad player because he’s not getting extended?
Not at all! He’s having a solid rookie season at 21. The issue is position scarcity — first base/DH is easier to fill than shortstop. Teams pay for scarcity.
Could the Giants extend him in the offseason (November)?
Maybe. The poll asked about "this year" (in-season). An offseason deal is more likely if he finishes strong. But the Giants’ history suggests they’ll still wait.
What would change the author’s mind?
If Eldridge hit 20+ home runs by now. That would signal elite power — the kind that forces a team’s hand. He hasn’t, so the "wait and see" approach makes sense.
Enjoyed this breakdown? The Giants’ farm system is finally producing hitters — and smart patience might be the best way to keep them.
