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Fox Poll Stunner: Talarico Leads Paxton in Texas Senate Race
Texas Senate Race 2026: New Poll Shows Tight Contest Between Ken Paxton and James Talarico
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What’s Happening in Texas?
Texas has been a solid Republican state for decades. In 2024, Donald Trump won here by almost 14 percentage points. But a brand-new Fox News Poll shows the 2026 U.S. Senate race is much closer than expected.
Republican Ken Paxton (the current Texas Attorney General) is running against Democrat James Talarico (a state representative). Despite Trump’s endorsement, Paxton hasn’t fully united Republican voters—and that’s giving Talarico a small but real lead.
The Headline Numbers
| Race | Leader | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate | James Talarico (D) | 51% vs 48% (3 points) | Within the poll’s margin of error (±3%) |
| Among highly motivated voters | Talarico | 53% vs 47% (6 points) | Bigger gap when only "super voters" are counted |
| Governor | Greg Abbott (R) | 1 point over Gina Hinojosa (D) | Very tight; Abbott has slight crossover appeal |
Important: "Within the margin of error" means the race is statistically a tie. Either candidate could really be ahead.
Why Is the Senate Race So Close?
1. Republicans Aren’t Fully United Behind Paxton
- 89% of Republicans support Paxton → 98% of Democrats support Talarico
- 24% of non-MAGA Republicans say they’ll vote for Talarico
- Independents break 68% for Talarico
Pollster Daron Shaw (Republican): "Although Paxton dominated Cornyn in the GOP primary, that bruising contest left scars. He has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents."
2. Character Concerns Hurt Paxton More Than Ideology Hurts Talarico
| Concern | % of Voters Worried |
|---|---|
| Paxton lacks the character to be Senator | 59% |
| Talarico is too extreme | 47% |
| Gap: 12 points more voters worry about Paxton’s character |
- Even 36% of Republicans worry about Paxton’s character
- Only 17% of Democrats worry Talarico is too extreme
3. Democrats Are More Fired Up
| Metric | Democrats | Republicans | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extremely motivated to vote | Higher | Lower | Dems +7 |
| Extremely interested in midterms | Higher | Lower | Dems +6 |
Enthusiasm gap: When only the most motivated voters are counted, Talarico’s lead doubles to 6 points.
Who Supports Whom?
Ken Paxton’s Base (Republican)
- White evangelical Christians
- White men without a college degree
- Rural voters
- Regular churchgoers
- Men overall
- Voters age 65+
James Talarico’s Base (Democrat)
- Black voters
- Hispanic voters
- Women
- Voters under 30
- College graduates
- Moderates
- Urban/suburban voters
Trump’s Popularity Has Flipped in Texas
| Time | Favorable | Unfavorable | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Election (FNVA) | 55% | 44% | +11 |
| July 2026 (This Poll) | 45% | 54% | –9 |
That’s a 20-point swing in just two years.
- Paxton: 45% favorable / 51% unfavorable (–6 net)
- Talarico: 49% favorable / 43% unfavorable (+6 net)
- Talarico is more popular than the Democratic Party; the GOP is slightly more popular than Paxton
What Do Voters Care About Most?
| Issue | % Saying "Most Important" |
|---|---|
| Inflation / Cost of Living | ~39% (nearly 4 in 10) |
| Immigration / Border | ~20% |
| Healthcare | ~10% |
| Political Divisions | ~10% |
| Unemployment / Jobs | ~10% |
Financial stress is real: 35% say they’re falling behind financially, only 16% say they’re getting ahead. Half say they’re holding steady.
Governor’s Race: Abbott vs. Hinojosa
- Abbott (R) leads by 1 point — essentially a tie
- Abbott gets more crossover votes: 12% of Talarico voters back Abbott vs. 9% of Paxton voters back Hinojosa
- But Hinojosa wins highly motivated voters by 6 points and highly interested voters by 5 points
- Favorability:
- Abbott: 50% favorable / 49% unfavorable (+1 net)
- Hinojosa: 45% favorable / 34% unfavorable (+11 net), but 1 in 5 voters don’t know her yet
History check: Texas last elected a Democratic governor in 1990 (Ann Richards), a Democratic Senator in 1988 (Lloyd Bentsen), and a Democratic president in 1976 (Jimmy Carter).
A Closer Look: Hispanic Voters in Texas
Hispanic voters are a huge and growing part of Texas—and they lean strongly toward Democrats in this poll.
| Metric | Hispanic Voters |
|---|---|
| Senate: Talarico vs Paxton | 59% vs 41% (+18 Talarico) |
| Governor: Hinojosa vs Abbott | +16 Hinojosa (vs +14 for Beto O’Rourke in 2022) |
| Top issue | Inflation (4 in 10) |
| Financial stress | 4 in 10 say they’re falling behind |
| Enthusiasm gap | Hispanic Democrats more motivated than Hispanic Republicans |
| Character concern | 61% worry Paxton lacks character vs 41% worry Talarico too extreme (+20 gap) |
Favorability Among Hispanic Voters
| Figure | Favorable | Unfavorable |
|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | 57% | — |
| Gina Hinojosa | 53% | — |
| Democratic Party | 53% | — |
| Ken Paxton | — | 56% |
| Greg Abbott | — | 56% |
| Donald Trump | — | 61% |
| Republican Party | — | 59% |
In 2024, Trump won Hispanic voters in Texas by just 1 point (50%–49%). That edge is gone.
How Was This Poll Done?
| Detail | Info |
|---|---|
| Dates | July 23–27, 2026 |
| Sample | 1,006 Texas registered voters |
| Method | Live interviewers (landline + cell) + text-to-online |
| Languages | English & Spanish |
| Margin of Error (overall) | ±3 percentage points |
| Hispanic oversample | 296 extra → 556 total (±4 pts) |
| Conducted by | Beacon Research (D) & Shaw & Company Research (R) |
| Weighting | Age, race, education, area to match voter file |
Summary: 5 Big Takeaways
- Texas is competitive. A 3-point Senate lead in a state Trump won by 14? That’s a major shift.
- Paxton has a unity problem. 1 in 4 non-MAGA Republicans back the Democrat. He’s not locking down his own party.
- Character > Ideology for now. Voters worry more about Paxton’s character than Talarico’s liberalism—especially Republicans.
- Democrats are energized. The enthusiasm gap is real and shows up in every metric: motivation, interest, turnout intent.
- Hispanic voters are moving toward Democrats. +18 in Senate, +16 in Governor, and deep unfavorable views of Trump/GOP.
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
1. Is James Talarico definitely going to win?
No. The 3-point lead is within the margin of error (±3%). That means the race is statistically a toss-up. Paxton could absolutely win—especially if he unifies Republicans and turnout favors the GOP.
2. Why are so many Republicans crossing over for Talarico?
Two big reasons: (1) The nasty primary against John Cornyn left hard feelings among non-MAGA Republicans, and (2) character concerns—36% of Republicans worry Paxton lacks the character for the Senate.
3. Does Trump’s endorsement not matter anymore?
It matters in a primary. But in a general election, Trump’s net favorability has flipped from +11 to –9 in Texas. His brand may now drag down down-ballot Republicans with independents and suburban voters.
4. Why is inflation the #1 issue—not the border?
Even in a border state, pocketbook issues win. 35% of voters say they’re falling behind financially. When people can’t afford groceries or rent, that tops immigration—even for Hispanic voters (4 in 10 cite inflation).
5. Can Greg Abbott lose the governor’s race?
Yes. A 1-point lead is essentially a tie. Hinojosa is better liked (+11 net vs +1) and wins highly motivated voters. But Abbott has incumbency, money, and crossover appeal. It’ll come down to turnout.
Bottom line: Texas isn’t a lock for Republicans anymore. The 2026 midterms could be the most competitive cycle here in a generation.
