Fantasy Football 2026: The "Do Not Draft" List – Players to Avoid at Their Current Price

By Eric Karabell, ESPN Senior Fantasy Writer
Published August 6, 2026

What Is This List All About?

IMPORTANT POINT
This isn’t a "these players are bad" list. It’s a "don’t pay full price for them right now" list.
Fantasy football is about value — getting more production than what you paid for in your draft.
If a player is being picked too early (high ADP — Average Draft Position), they become a "Do Not Draft" target at that spot.
You can still draft them — just later, when the risk matches the reward.

The New York Giants: A Tale of Three Talents (and One Big Problem)

The Giants have three exciting young stars:

The kicker: These three barely played together last year — just 18 snaps total.

KEY TAKEAWAY
In fantasy football, availability is the best ability.
You don’t get bonus points for "he would’ve scored 20 points if he played."
If your stars miss games, you lose — plain and simple.

Quarterbacks: Big Names, Bigger Price Tags

1. Josh Allen (Bills) — The "Too Expensive" Superstar

• Resume: Top-2 fantasy QB for 6 straight years. Incredible runner + passer. Durable. Awesome.
• Problem: Going in Round 2 in 10-team leagues.
• Why fade: QB is deep this year. You can get a great QB in Round 6–8. Spending a 2nd-round pick on any QB means missing out on an elite RB or WR.

2. Drake Maye (Patriots) — The Schedule Scare

• 2025 stats: 4,394 pass yds, 31 TDs, 450 rush yds, 4 rush TDs — only Allen scored more fantasy points.
• Problem: Didn’t face a single top-10 defense last year. This year? Gauntlet ahead.
• Verdict: Great player, but regression likely. Don’t pay "best QB ever" prices.

3. Jayden Daniels (Commanders) — The Injury Magnet

• Rookie year: Top-5 fantasy QB. Electric.
• Sophomore year: Played 7 games. Injuries: knee, wrist, hamstring, elbow.
• Risk: Running QBs are amazing when healthy. Daniels + Dart = high ceiling, high injury risk.

4. Other QBs to Avoid at Current ADP

Running Backs: The "Mortal" Position

1. Christian McCaffrey (49ers) — The "Lightning Can’t Strike Twice" Rule

• 2025: Comeback Player of the Year. 400+ fantasy points. 400+ touches. Played all 17 games.
• History: Since 2000, 13 RBs had 400+ carries (incl. playoffs). Zero finished top-10 next year.
• Saquon Barkley just proved it in 2025.
• CMC is 30. 49ers will manage his workload. Fade in Round 1.

2. Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) — The "Seahawks Knew Something" Guy

• Super Bowl MVP with Seattle. Now in KC.
• But: Never finished better than RB15 in fantasy in 4 years. Seahawks protected him (20th in rush attempts).
• Chiefs don’t use RBs heavily in passing game.
• ADP: Round 3 — too rich for a guy who’s never been a fantasy stud.

3. Kyren Williams (Rams) — The "Blake Corum Is Coming" Problem

• 3 straight years of 10+ rush TDs. Going Round 5.
• Backup Blake Corum: 5.1 YPC in Year 2. Eating into snaps.
• Williams likely takes a step back. Don’t lock him in as a "safe RB2."

4. Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) — The Sophomore Slump + Competition

• Rookie: Star. Year 2: Shoulder injury, 1 TD in 10 games, 3.4 YPC.
• Bucs signed Kenny Gainwell — 73 catches in 2025, 4.7 YPC.
• Gainwell goes Round 13. Irving goes Round 6. That gap is value.

5. TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots) — The Timeshare Trap

• Fantasy managers love him. But Rhamondre Stevenson (power back, great pass blocker) was the playoff RB.
• Patriots will split carries. Stevenson goes multiple rounds later = better value.

6. Jonathon Brooks / Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) — The "Too Many Cooks" Kitchen

• Brooks: 2nd-round pick (2024), barely played (knee tears).
• Hubbard: Solid but not spectacular.
• Panthers backfield = murky. Fading both is a valid strategy.

7. Travis Etienne Jr. (Saints) — The Alvin Kamara Shadow

• Etienne had career year. But Kamara (elite pass-catcher, 68 catches in ’24) is still there.
• Etienne: Not a goal-line guy, caught 1 TD in first 3 years, 6 TDs last year (fluke?).
• Not a safe RB2.

8. Tony Pollard (Titans) — The Declining Efficiency

• 4 straight 1,000-yd seasons. But: not efficient, not a big pass catcher, Titans offense meh.
• Better flex options exist. Aim higher.

Wide Receivers: Flashy Names, Risky Business

1. Rashee Rice (Chiefs) — The "Games Risk," Not Just Injury Risk

• 12 games played in 2 years. Injury + suspension (spent part of offseason in jail).
• When healthy: Statistical monster.
• Reality: Can’t count on 17 games. Round 2–3 pick? No thanks.

2. A.J. Brown (Patriots) — The "Unhappy + Tough Schedule" Combo

• Traded from Philly. Was unhappy there. Target-forced 3-game spike in Nov masked decline.
• Now: Faces shutdown corners weekly in a brutal schedule.
• Draft him — just not top-10 WR.

3. Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals) — The Pedigree Trap

• #4 overall pick (2024). "Must be awesome, right?"
• Reality: Ordinary numbers. Stop blaming QBs/coaches. He hasn’t earned WR2 price yet.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars WRs — The "Guessing Game"

• 3–4 Jags WRs go in similar ADP range.
• If you can’t pick the winner, avoid them all. (One might even play defense snaps )

5. The 2025 Rookie WR Class — The "Hype > History" Trap

Top 60 picks: Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, Matthew Golden, Jayden Higgins, Luther Burden III, Tre’ Harris, Jack Bech…
Result: 2 finished top-50 in fantasy scoring.

PRO TIP
Rookies look shiny on draft day because they haven’t failed yet.
Veterans like Wan’Dale Robinson, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston — boring? Maybe. Reliable? Yes.
Don’t overpay for "potential" when "proven" costs less.

Tight Ends: The "One-Week Wonder" & The "TD Regression" Candidates

1. Kyle Pitts Sr. (Falcons) — The 21% Problem

• Finally broke out! Finished TE2 in fantasy.
• But: 21% of his total points came in ONE WEEK (Week 15).
• Rest of season: ~10 pts/game, 2 TDs total.
• Atlanta QB situation = messy.
• Top-5 TE ADP? Hard pass. I wait at TE anyway — especially here.

2. Dallas Goedert (Eagles) — The "Lightning in a Bottle" Year

• Caught 11 of team’s 26 TD passes. Career-high by a mile.
• Previous 4 years combined: 12 TDs. (Missed time with injuries too.)
• Age 31. Not durable. Double-digit TDs again? Unlikely.

Summary: The Golden Rules of the "Do Not Draft" List

1. Value > Name Recognition — Don’t draft a star just because he’s famous. Draft him at the right price.
2. Availability Wins Championships — Injured stars on your bench = 0 points. Healthy "boring" players = wins.
3. History Repeats — 400-carry RBs don’t repeat. One-week TE explosions don’t sustain. Rookies usually disappoint.
4. Opportunity Cost Is Real — Every early pick spent on a risky QB/TE is a missed elite RB/WR.
5. Fade the Hype, Trust the Track Record — Boring veterans > shiny rookies (most years).

FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered

Q: Does "Do Not Draft" mean I should NEVER take these players?

A: Absolutely not! It means don’t take them at their current Average Draft Position (ADP). If Malik Nabers falls to Round 6? Steal! If Christian McCaffrey is there in Round 3? Maybe! Price determines everything.

Q: What is ADP and why does it matter?

A: ADP = Average Draft Position — where a player is typically picked across thousands of drafts. If a player’s ADP is "Round 2" but their realistic outcome is "Round 5 value," you’re overpaying. Smart drafters wait for value.

Q: Why do you hate rookies so much?

A: I don’t hate them — I hate paying veteran prices for unproven players. In 2025, only 2 of 8 first-round rookie WRs finished top-50 at the position. That’s a 75% bust rate at premium cost. Veterans have proven NFL production.

Q: Is it ever okay to draft a QB early?

A: In Superflex/2-QB leagues — yes, QBs are gold. In standard 1-QB leagues (10–12 teams) — almost never. The position is too deep. The difference between QB5 and QB15 is ~3 pts/week. The difference between RB5 and RB15? Massive.

Q: How do I actually use this list on draft day?

A:

1. Print or save the names above.
2. Track ADP in your league’s platform (ESPN, Yahoo, Sleeper, etc.).
3. When a "Do Not Draft" player comes up — pause. Ask: "Is he falling past his risk?"
4. If yes → draft him. If no → let someone else overpay and grab a safer RB/WR.

Final Thought: Fantasy championships aren’t won in Round 1 — they’re won in Rounds 5–10 where you find league-winners at discount prices. Let your leaguemates chase the shiny, risky names. You build the roster that wins.

Good luck, and draft smart!
— Eric Karabell