New Poll Shows a Surprise Leader in Israel’s Election: A Super Simple Explanation

What Is This Poll About?

Imagine you ask a bunch of friends who they’d vote for if an election were held today. That’s what a poll is! A TV channel in Israel called Channel 13 asked people this question and shared the results on Wednesday evening.

The poll is about the Knesset – Israel’s parliament (like a big club of 120 people who make the country’s rules). If an election happened today, a new team (party) led by a man named Gadi Eisenkot would be the biggest in that club.

Important Point: This is the first time Eisenkot’s party, called Yashar, has beaten the party of the current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu (his party is Likud), in such a poll! Eisenkot used to be the top boss of Israel’s army (called the IDF Chief of Staff).

How Does Forming a Government Work in Israel?

Think of the Knesset as a school class with 120 seats. After an election, the kids (parties) sit in these seats based on how many votes they got.

To become the "ruling team" (government), a group of parties must hold at least 61 seats (that’s more than half).

Also, to even get a seat in the class, a party must get at least 3.25 percent of all votes. That’s like needing a minimum number of friends to join the club.

Steps to Form a Government (Simple Version)

1. People vote for their favorite party.
2. Parties that get ≥3.25% of votes win seats (out of 120).
3. Parties team up with friends (forming a "coalition").
4. If the team has 61 or more seats, they can lead the country.

The Big Results: Who’s Winning?

According to the new poll:

• Yashar (led by Gadi Eisenkot) would get 23 seats. That’s 2 more than in the previous Channel 13 poll.
• Likud (led by Prime Minister Netanyahu) would get 22 seats. That’s 1 more than last week’s poll.

So Yashar is just ahead by one seat!

Important: Even though the opposition (teams not in the current government) together have more seats, the Jewish opposition parties alone are still 3 seats short of the 61 needed. They need help from Arab-majority parties to reach the number.

The Blocs: Teams That Usually Stick Together

In Israel, parties often form two big friend groups (blocs):

• The current coalition (parties already in government with Netanyahu): projected to hold 51 seats.
• The opposition (parties not in government): projected to hold 69 seats, which includes 11 seats for two Arab-majority parties.

So the opposition has more seats overall, but without the Arab parties, the Jewish opposition only has 58 (69‑11), which is less than 61. Recent polls keep showing this pattern.

Other Parties and Their Seats

Here’s a simple list of the other teams and how many seats they’d get:

Opposition parties:

• Together (led by former PM Naftali Bennett, formed earlier this year after merging with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid): 15 seats (third‑largest overall)
• The Democrats (center‑left, led by former deputy army chief Yair Golan): 10 seats
• Yisrael Beiteinu (led by Avigdor Lieberman, a nationalist hardliner): 10 seats

Parties in the current coalition:

• Shas (ultra‑Orthodox Jewish party): 8 seats
• United Torah Judaism (ultra‑Orthodox): 8 seats
• Otzma Yehudit (far‑right, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben‑Gvir): 8 seats

Arab‑majority parties:

• Hadash‑Ta’al: 6 seats
• United Arab List: 5 seats

Other coalition party:

• Religious Zionism (far‑right, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich): 5 seats

What About the Smaller Teams (Below the Line)?

Some parties didn’t get enough votes to enter the Knesset (remember the 3.25% rule). The poll says:

• The Reservists (led by Yoaz Hendel, who earlier this week announced he would run together with ex‑Kahol Lavan MK Chili Tropper): only 2.2% of the vote.
• Kahol Lavan (led by former PM Benny Gantz, which at its peak won 35 seats): only 2.1%.
• Balad (Palestinian nationalist party): just 1.7%.

These teams would be left out of the 120‑seat club.

Some Drama: Campaign Fights and Surprises

• Earlier, Bennett was seen as the top choice to replace Netanyahu, but now Eisenkot is the new rising star. A Monday Channel 12 News poll even showed Yashar and Likud tied, and Eisenkot beating Netanyahu on "who’d be a better prime minister."
• Likud’s campaign folks switched their attention from Bennett to Eisenkot because he’s now the bigger threat.
• Last month, a Likud minister named Yoav Kisch said he wouldn’t rule out Likud joining a government led by Eisenkot! He referred to Netanyahu’s statement at a Saturday press conference calling for a broad coalition after the next election, and urged opposition parties to reconsider their stance. He said: "I know that [the opposition parties] are boycotting the Likud and the right, but maybe they’ll change. I hope."
• Eisenkot accused Likud of racism because they made a video making fun of his English skills (trying to show Netanyahu speaks English better – a point his supporters often tout). Eisenkot said: "They’re scared, I see their fear," hinting his poll surge motivated the attack. In a Ynet interview, he asked: "Where was Netanyahu’s excellent English on October 7? Did it help us with anything? It didn’t. How does his excellent English help strengthen Israel‑U.S. relations, which are at a low point?"

Who Did the Poll and What’s Missing?

The Channel 13 poll was conducted by Hamadad (Shmuel Rosner and Noah Slepkov), in partnership with Project Hamidgam (Dr. Ariel Ayalon), Askaria (Dudi Dror) and Stat‑Net (Yosef Maklada).

Important: The poll did not specify the number of respondents or the sampling error. So treat it as a snapshot, not a final answer.

Summary

In a nutshell: If Israelis voted today, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party would be the largest with 23 seats, narrowly beating Netanyahu’s Likud (22). The opposition bloc has 69 seats total but needs Arab parties to reach 61 because Jewish opposition alone has only 58. Bennett’s Together is third with 15. Several small parties fall below the 3.25% threshold. The poll shows a shifting race with personal clashes over English skills and possible surprise alliances.

FAQ

Q1: What is the Knesset?
A: It’s Israel’s parliament – a group of 120 members elected to make laws and run the country.

Q2: Why does a party need 61 seats?
A: Because 61 is more than half of 120. A team with at least 61 seats can form a government and make decisions without being stopped by others.

Q3: What does "electoral threshold" mean?
A: It’s the smallest share of votes (3.25%) a party needs to win any seats in the Knesset. If they get less, they get zero seats.

Q4: Who is Gadi Eisenkot?
A: He is a former top general (Chief of Staff) of Israel’s army (IDF) and now leads the Yashar party, which is currently polling first.

Q5: Why are the Arab‑majority parties important?
A: Because the Jewish opposition parties alone don’t have enough seats (58) to govern; adding the 11 seats from Arab parties gives them 69, showing they are kingmakers.