The Fake Poll That Fooled Los Angeles: A Simple Explanation

What Happened?

Imagine someone creates a made-up survey that looks real, shares it online, and news outlets and politicians start talking about it as if it were true. That’s exactly what happened in Los Angeles recently. A company called Median Strategies released a “poll” saying Mayor Karen Bass was way ahead of Councilmember Nithya Raman in the upcoming mayoral runoff. But the poll was completely fake—it was actually a social experiment to see how easily false polling information can spread without anyone checking it.

The Fake Poll Details

Here’s what the phony poll claimed:

• Who was ahead: Karen Bass leading Nithya Raman by almost 12 percentage points.
• How many people surveyed: 560 Los Angeles voters.
• When it was supposedly done: Between July 30 and August 5.
• Margin of error: 4.1% (a number real polls use to show how accurate they might be).
• About Spencer Pratt voters: The poll said 16% of respondents voted for Spencer Pratt in the primary. Of those, 85% planned to vote for Bass and only 7% for Raman.
• The spin: The analysis claimed Pratt voters saw Bass as the “more familiar, more moderate option.”

Important Point: None of this was real. The numbers, the voters, the analysis—all invented.

How the Fake Poll Spread

1. Median Strategies posts the poll on social media (starting August 9). They had only about 20 followers.
2. A news outlet (California Post) writes a headline declaring: “Spencer Pratt’s voters could be deciding factor in LA mayor showdown according to latest poll.”
3. Mayor Bass’s campaign cheers the results. She posts on X (formerly Twitter): “Doing the work, showing up, and gaining momentum. Let’s do this, LA!” and credits Median Strategies.
4. The post gets deleted after questions arise.
5. Controller Kenneth Mejia (who endorsed Raman) notes that polls once showed him losing too—but he won by a wide margin.

The Confession: “It Was an Experiment”

When The Los Angeles Times kept asking questions, Median Strategies finally admitted the truth in an email:

“Median Strategies was created as a short term social experiment to examine how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.”

In plain English: They made it up on purpose to see if people would believe and share it without checking.

They also said:

• They are not seeking publicity.
• They are declining interviews.
• The individuals involved want to stay anonymous.

Why This Matters

• Fake polls can influence elections by shaping what voters and candidates think is happening.
• News outlets must verify sources before reporting poll numbers as fact.
• Politicians should be careful about celebrating unverified data—it can backfire.
• Polling already has a trust problem; stunts like this make it worse.

Important Point: Median Strategies even got another race wrong on purpose—they released a fake Wisconsin poll showing a candidate up by 20 points, then admitted they “got Wisconsin wrong—and by quite a margin too.” This was all part of the same experiment.

Summary

• A company called Median Strategies created a completely fake poll about the LA mayoral race.
• The poll looked real (had numbers, margin of error, voter breakdowns) but was invented for a social experiment.
• News outlets and politicians shared it without verifying.
• When caught, the company admitted it was a test to see how easily false polling spreads.
• The incident shows why we must always check sources—especially during elections.

FAQ

1. Was the poll real at all?
No. Every number, every respondent, and every conclusion was made up.

2. Why did Median Strategies do this?
They wanted to prove a point: false polling information can enter the political conversation and spread widely without anyone independently verifying it.

3. Did anyone get in trouble?
As of now, no legal action has been announced. The Bass campaign said “bad faith attempts to influence elections should be investigated and prosecuted.”

4. How can I tell if a poll is real?
Look for:

• A reputable polling firm with a track record.
• Methodology details (how people were contacted, sample size, weighting).
• Transparency about who paid for it.
• Other outlets reporting the same numbers after checking.

5. What happened to the Wisconsin poll they mentioned?
That was also fake. They released it, the candidate lost, and then Median Strategies admitted they “got it wrong”—as part of the same experiment.