Pollster Admits: Double-Digit Bass Lead Over Raman Was ‘Bogus’
The Fake Poll That Fooled Los Angeles: A Simple Breakdown
What Happened? The Short Story
Imagine someone makes up a survey, pretends it’s real, and even the Mayor believes it. That’s exactly what happened in Los Angeles recently. A mysterious company called Median Strategies released a fake poll claiming Mayor Karen Bass was crushing her opponent, Councilmember Nithya Raman. News outlets wrote headlines about it. The Mayor’s campaign cheered. Then—plot twist—the company admitted the whole thing was a “social experiment.”
Important Callout
This was not a real poll. It was a fabricated survey designed to test how easily false political information spreads without anyone checking the facts.
The Fake Poll’s Claims (All Made Up)
Here’s what the bogus “poll” said—none of this was real:
- Sample size: 560 LA voters
- Dates: July 30 – August 5
- Margin of error: 4.1% (a detail added to look professional)
- Headline result: Bass leading Raman by ~12 percentage points
- Spencer Pratt voters: 16% of respondents said they voted for Pratt in the primary
- Of those, 85% supposedly planned to vote for Bass
- Only 7% would support Raman
- Narrative: Pratt voters see Bass as the “familiar, moderate choice”
How the Fake Poll Spread: Step by Step
- August 9 – Median Strategies creates social media accounts (≈20 followers)
- First post: They promise “trustworthy polling, rebuilt” with “no partisan clients”
- Test run: They release a fake Wisconsin poll showing a Democratic socialist up by 20+ points
- Result: The candidate lost badly
- Median admits: “We got Wisconsin wrong—and by quite a margin too”
- Next day: They drop the fake LA mayoral poll
- California Post publishes a headline: “Spencer Pratt’s voters could be deciding factor in LA mayor showdown”
- Mayor Bass’s campaign tweets the fake poll: “Doing the work, showing up, gaining momentum!”
- The tweet is later deleted
- Controller Kenneth Mejia (a Raman endorser) notes polls can be wrong—he once trailed in polls but won big
- The Times asks questions → Median Strategies confesses it was all an experiment
Why Did They Do It? The Company’s Own Words
“Median Strategies was created as a short-term social experiment to examine how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.”
In plain English: They wanted to see if fake poll numbers could trick the media, campaigns, and voters—just by looking official.
Why This Matters (Even If You Don’t Live in LA)
- Fake polls look real – They use real-sounding numbers (sample size, margin of error, dates)
- News outlets sometimes skip verification – The California Post ran a headline without confirming the poll existed
- Campaigns amplify what helps them – Bass’s team shared it because it made them look strong
- Trust erodes – When voters can’t tell real data from fiction, democracy gets shakier
- No consequences (yet) – The company vanished after the reveal; Bass’s camp wants “bad faith attempts” investigated
Summary: What You Need to Remember
| Key Point | What It Means |
|---|---|
| The poll was 100% fake | No voters were surveyed. No data exists. |
| It fooled a news outlet & a sitting Mayor | Even pros can be tricked by professional-looking lies. |
| The creator called it an “experiment” | They wanted to prove the system is broken. |
| Fake polls can shape narratives | Headlines, campaign morale, and voter perception all shifted—for a day. |
| Verification matters | Always ask: Who did this poll? Where’s the raw data? Has anyone else confirmed it? |
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
1. Was Median Strategies a real polling firm?
No. They had no track record, ~20 followers, and admitted they existed only to run this “experiment.”
2. Did the poll change the actual election?
Probably not—it was debunked within days. But it did generate a real news headline and a real campaign tweet, which could have influenced some voters before the truth came out.
3. Why would the Mayor’s campaign share a fake poll?
Campaigns often share any favorable data without deep vetting. Bass’s team cited it as a news-reported poll, then deleted the post when it was exposed.
4. Can fake polls be illegal?
Possibly. Bass’s spokesperson called for investigation and prosecution of “bad faith attempts to influence elections.” Laws vary by state, but knowingly spreading false election info can cross legal lines.
5. How can I spot a fake poll next time?
Look for:
- Named, established firm (e.g., Pew, Gallup, UC Berkeley IGS)
- Public methodology & raw data
- Multiple outlets reporting it (not just one)
- Track record (have they been accurate before?)
- Anonymous “new” firms with no history
- Results that perfectly fit a campaign’s talking points
Final Thought:
This wasn’t just a prank—it was a stress test on our information system. The system failed. Next time, the fake poll might not come with a confession. Stay curious, ask for sources, and remember: a number on a screen isn’t proof.