Oil Is Below $76. So Why Is Bitcoin Still Below $65,000?

What’s Going On With Oil and Bitcoin?

Imagine the world runs on oil like a car runs on gasoline. Recently, some big events made oil prices jump around like a bouncing ball.

• On February 28, a conflict in Iran started, and an important narrow passage for oil ships called the Strait of Hormuz was closed.
• Because of this, the price of Brent crude oil (a common type of oil used as a global price marker) shot up by 63%:
  • It was $72.28 on Feb 27.
  • It reached $118.35 at its highest point in 2026 on March 30.
• When things cooled down (de-escalation), the price dropped again.
• But then President Donald Trump said the ceasefire is over, and oil prices started climbing once more.
• As of July 9, oil is sitting just under $76 per barrel.

Now, you might think: "Hey, cheaper oil means prices of stuff don’t rise as fast (less inflation), so the Federal Reserve (the boss of U.S. money) could lower interest rates (the cost to borrow money). That should be great for Bitcoin (a digital coin tagged BTC)!"

But that’s not what happened. The Fed’s latest meeting showed otherwise.

Important Point: Even though lower oil prices should help Bitcoin by allowing cheaper borrowing, the Fed isn’t playing along right now.

A Promo Note From the Original Article

The original story also included this promotional message (kept here for completeness):

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Why Is Bitcoin Still Trading Well Below $65,000?

That’s the big question! Let’s look at the reasons.

The Fed’s Unaccommodating Posture

Think of the Fed as the parent who controls the allowance. Right now, they are keeping the purse strings tight.

• Bitcoin has fallen 30% in 2026, and it’s 50% below its peak from last October.
• From a history book view, this kind of drop isn’t new, but Bitcoin isn’t getting any help from the big economic picture.
• At its June meeting, the Fed kept its key interest rate (called the Fed Funds rate) unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.
• Many Fed officials said they might even raise rates in the future.
• Their reasoning:
  • The job market is still strong (people have work).
  • Energy (oil) prices add to inflation.
  • So, they think it’s unwise to make money easier (looser policy) today.

Important Point: Bitcoin is like a risky toy that doesn’t pay you any allowance (no yield). When the Fed makes money tight, people don’t want to spend on risky toys, even if they could be fun.

Bitcoin Doesn’t Have a Fair Value

Normally, if you buy a stock (a piece of a company), you can look at what the company sells, the money it makes, and guess a fair price. Bitcoin is different.

• It’s not a company; it doesn’t sell products or produce cash flows.
• So, there’s no simple math to say what Bitcoin is truly worth (even though people try frameworks).
• The article suggests: don’t worry about short-term price guesses. Instead, look 10 or more years ahead.
• In that long view, the most important thing to watch is the money supply (how much money exists).

Here’s the money supply story in steps:

1. Since January 2009 (when the first Bitcoin block was mined), the U.S. M2 money supply (a measure of cash plus savings) grew by 178%.
2. The government added lots of money during the 2008‑09 financial crisis and the COVID‑19 pandemic.
3. Even in normal, non‑recession times, the money supply and debt keep rising because the government spends more than it collects (ongoing fiscal deficits).

Important Point: There’s no reason to believe this money‑printing trend will reverse. More money sloshing around could give Bitcoin the “liquidity” (available cash) to support a much higher price decades from now.

Image source: Getty Images (originally showing a mini oil rig and barrel on top of various paper currencies).

Should You Buy Stock in Bitcoin Right Now?

The original article ends with a note from The Motley Fool’s Stock Advisor service:

• Their analyst team found what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now — and Bitcoin was not on that list. The 10 could produce monster returns.
• They share examples:
  • Netflix was picked on Dec 17, 2004: $1,000 became $395,679!
  • Nvidia was picked on April 15, 2005: $1,000 became $1,294,805!
• Stock Advisor’s total average return is 929%, beating the S&P 500’s 211% (as of July 11, 2026).
• They invite you to see the top 10 list and join their investing community.
• Disclaimer: Author Neil Patel has no position in the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool holds and recommends Bitcoin. (Returns as of July 11, 2026.) The original article was published by The Motley Fool.

Summary

Let’s wrap it up like a simple story:

• Oil spiked because of an Iran conflict and shipping closure, then fell to under $76.
• Cheaper oil should have helped Bitcoin by letting the Fed cut rates, but the Fed kept rates high (3.5‑3.75%) due to job market and inflation worries.
• Bitcoin is down 30% in 2026 and suffers as a risky, non‑yield asset under tight money.
• Unlike companies, Bitcoin has no “fair value,” but long‑term growth in money supply could help its price later.
• A separate promo noted a rare signal for a small company, and the Stock Advisor list omits Bitcoin but has beaten the market historically.

FAQ

1. What is Bitcoin in kid terms?
Bitcoin is a digital coin that lives on computers. It isn’t a company, so it doesn’t make products or pay you interest, but some people hope it becomes worth more over time.

2. Why does the Federal Reserve matter for Bitcoin?
The Fed sets interest rates. When rates are high, borrowing money is expensive, and people avoid risky things like Bitcoin. When rates are low, risky things can look more attractive.

3. What is the Strait of Hormuz?
It’s a narrow waterway where a lot of the world’s oil travels. If it closes, oil can’t move easily, so oil prices jump.

4. What does “money supply” mean?
It’s just the total amount of money available in the economy. If the government prints more, the supply goes up, which can make assets like Bitcoin easier to buy later.

5. Should I immediately buy Bitcoin because of this article?
The article says a professional stock‑picking service didn’t include Bitcoin in its top 10, but it also notes long‑term money trends might help Bitcoin. It’s not direct financial advice, just information.