Charles Barkley: The Biggest Long Shot at the Celebrity Golf Tournament

By David Purdum (ESPN, July 9, 2026, 08:22 PM ET) – Joined ESPN in 2014; journalist covering the gambling industry since 2008.

What’s the Story? (Explained Like You’re 5)

Imagine a friendly golf contest where famous athletes and celebrities play together. It’s called the American Century Championship, held at the Edgewood Tahoe Golf Course in Lake Tahoe, Nevada. Charles Barkley—a retired basketball star who has slimmed down (friends now call him “Slim”)—recently had the two best games of his life at this event. But the people who set the betting prices (called “oddsmakers”) think he will do terribly this week and are giving him the worst chances to win.

How Betting Odds Work (Super Simple)

Betting odds are like a label that shows two things:

1. How likely someone thinks a player will win.
2. How much extra money you get if you bet and they win.

For example:

• 7,500‑1 means the bet sellers think it’s almost impossible to win. But if you bet $1 and he wins, they pay you $7,500 (plus your $1 back!).
• 3‑1 means if you bet $1, you win $3 profit.
• 7‑2 means if you bet $2, you win $7 profit.

Who Has What Odds? (From Caesars Sportsbook)

Here are the key players and their odds to win the whole tournament:

• Charles Barkley: 7,500‑1 (the longest odds of anyone in the field — same as last year).
• Mardy Fish (retired tennis player, two‑time event champ) and Joe Pavelski (hockey star, last year’s winner): tied as favorites at 3‑1.
• Stephen Curry (NBA star and past champ) and John Smoltz (baseball announcer): next in line at 7‑2.

Important Callout: Even though more fans are betting on Curry, the sportsbook says Barkley is their “biggest liability.” Because his odds are so huge, even a few small bets on him add up to a giant risk for the bookmaker. It’s like betting on a tiny college team (UMass) to win the big football championship—a little money here and there could still blow up the bookie’s budget if the impossible happens.

What the Odds Expert Says

Anthony Salleroli, the lead golf trader for Caesars Sportsbook, shared some behind‑the‑scenes facts on Thursday:

1. More bets were placed on Stephen Curry to win than on any other golfer.
2. But Curry is not the sportsbook’s biggest worry—Barkley is, because his 7,500‑1 odds attracted enough action to make him the “worst‑case scenario” for Caesars.
3. Salleroli noted it doesn’t take much money to build a risk on a golfer with odds similar to UMass winning the college football title.

Barkley’s Report Card & This Week’s Guess

Let’s look at how Barkley actually finished before:

• 2024: 58th place (his career‑best at this event).
• Last year (2025): 69th place (his second‑best).

This week, Caesars set an over/under (a prediction line) on where Barkley will land: 63.5.

• Betting “over” means you think he’ll finish worse than 63.5 (like 64th or higher number = lower placement).
• Betting “under” means you think he’ll finish better than 63.5 (like 63rd or above).

Most bettors are picking him to finish worse than 63rd. Salleroli said: “Early action doesn’t suggest many people have faith in ‘Slim’ to have a good showing across the next three days.”

His Friends Believe in Him

Not everyone is doubting the slimmed‑down Barkley. John Smoltz, a fellow competitor, told reporters:

• “He’s come so far.”
• Smoltz played with Charles 20 years ago and sees a big change.
• Now Barkley is motivated, lost weight, looks great, and “every year he’s got a bar that he’s trying to raise.”

Summary

Charles Barkley is the ultimate underdog (7,500‑1) at the 2026 American Century celebrity golf event in Lake Tahoe. Despite his two personal‑best finishes recently (58th in 2024, 69th in 2025), oddsmakers and most bettors expect a poor result this week (over/under at 63.5 with bets on the “worse” side). Curry is the fan favorite, but Barkley is the sportsbook’s biggest financial risk because of his sky‑high odds. Still, teammate Smoltz thinks Barkley’s weight loss and drive could help him surprise everyone.

FAQ

Q1: What does “7,500‑1 odds” mean in kid terms?
A: It means the bet shop thinks he’ll almost certainly not win. But if you put down $1 and he does win, they hand you $7,500 plus your $1 back.

Q2: Who are the real favorites to win the tournament?
A: Mardy Fish and Joe Pavelski are co‑favorites at 3‑1 odds. Stephen Curry and John Smoltz are next at 7‑2.

Q3: Why is Barkley a “liability” for the sportsbook if few think he’ll win?
A: Because his odds are so long, even a small number of $1 or $5 bets add up to a massive potential payout. If he magically wins, Caesars would owe a lot of money.

Q4: What is the over/under on Barkley’s finishing spot?
A: It’s 63.5. Most people are betting he finishes worse (a higher number) than 63rd place.

Q5: Did Barkley actually get better at this golf event?
A: Yes! He placed 58th in 2024 (his best ever) and 69th in 2025 (his second best), and his peers say his weight loss and motivation show he’s improving.