Charles Barkley: The Biggest Long Shot at the Celebrity Golf Tournament

By David Purdum, ESPN (July 9, 2026) — journalist covering the gambling industry since 2008, joined ESPN in 2014. Article also credited to multiple authors.

What’s the Story?

Charles Barkley has slimmed down and is fresh off the two best golf performances of his career at the American Century Championship. But even with that improvement, the people who set betting odds (called "oddsmakers") are not giving him much respect at this week’s celebrity golf event in Lake Tahoe, Nevada.

Understanding Betting Odds (ELI5)

If you’re new to sports betting, here’s how the numbers work in super simple steps:

1. Big odds like 7,500-1 mean: If you bet $1 on that person and they win, you get $7,500 in profit (plus your $1 back). The bigger the number, the less likely the bookie thinks it will happen.
2. Shorter odds like 3-1 mean: If you bet $1 and they win, you get $3 profit. This marks someone as a "favorite" — thought likely to win.
3. Odds like 7-2 mean: If you bet $2 and they win, you get $7 profit (that’s $3.50 per $1 bet).

Important Callout: Even though Barkley is extremely unlikely to win, a sportsbook can still face a big risk from his long odds because the payoff for each bet is enormous!

Barkley’s Long Odds

• Barkley is 7,500-1 to win the annual celebrity golf tournament held at Edgewood Tahoe Golf Course.
• That is the longest odds of anyone in the field, according to Caesars Sportsbook.
• He also had the longest odds last year — exactly 7,500-1 at Caesars.

Who Are the Favorites?

Here is the betting lineup per Caesars:

• Co-favorites at 3-1:
  • Mardy Fish (retired tennis player, two-time champion at this event)
  • Joe Pavelski (hockey player, last year’s winner)
• Next in line at 7-2:
  • Stephen Curry (NBA star and previous champion)
  • John Smoltz (baseball announcer)

Why Barkley Is the Sportsbook’s Worry

Anthony Salleroli, the lead golf trader for Caesars Sportsbooks, shared some behind-the-scenes info on Thursday:

• More bets were placed on Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors guard and 2023 celebrity golf tournament champion) to win than any other golfer.
• However, Curry is not the sportsbook’s biggest "liability" (the outcome that would cost them the most money).
• That unwanted honor belongs to Barkley! His 7,500-1 odds have attracted enough betting action to make him the worst-case scenario for Caesars Sportsbook.

Why doesn’t it take much money to create this risk? Salleroli noted that Barkley’s odds are similar to the University of Massachusetts (UMass) winning the college football national championship — so unlikely that even a small pile of bets could add up to a huge payout if he pulls off a miracle.

How Has Barkley Actually Played?

Let’s look at his recent track record:

• In 2024, he finished a career-best 58th place.
• Last year, he came in 69th.
• This week, Caesars set an over/under (a bet on whether he’ll finish better or worse than a set number) at 63.5.
  • The bulk of bets are on Barkley finishing worse than 63rd place.
• Salleroli said: "Early action doesn’t suggest many people have faith in ‘Slim’ to have a good showing across the next three days." ("Slim" is Barkley’s nickname after his weight loss.)

But Some Peers Think He Could Surprise!

Not everyone is counting Barkley out. His friend and fellow competitor John Smoltz told reporters before the tournament:

"He’s come so far. I played with Charles 20 years ago. And where he is at now — motivated, lost weight, looks great — every year he’s got a bar that he’s trying to raise."

So while the bettors aren’t confident, people who know him personally believe his new motivation could help him beat the odds.

Summary

• Charles Barkley is the longest shot (7,500-1) to win the celebrity golf event in Lake Tahoe, just like last year.
• The favorites are Mardy Fish and Joe Pavelski at 3-1; Curry and Smoltz follow at 7-2.
• Even though Curry got the most bets, Barkley is Caesars Sportsbook’s biggest liability because his huge odds mean a win would cost them a lot.
• Barkley’s recent finishes: 58th (2024 career best), 69th (last year). The over/under on his finish this week is 63.5, with most bets expecting him to do worse.
• Despite low betting confidence, Smoltz highlights Barkley’s weight loss and motivation as signs he might surprise everyone.

FAQ

Q1: What does 7,500-1 odds mean in plain English?
A: If you bet $1 on Barkley and he somehow wins, you’d receive $7,500 in winnings (plus your original $1). It shows the bookie thinks his win is extremely unlikely.

Q2: Who is most likely to win according to the odds?
A: Mardy Fish and Joe Pavelski are co-favorites at 3-1 odds, meaning they are considered the most likely winners by Caesars.

Q3: What is a "liability" for a sportsbook?
A: It’s the amount of money the betting company could lose if a certain outcome happens. Barkley is Caesars’ biggest liability because many people bet on his huge odds, so if he wins, they’d owe a massive amount.

Q4: What is an over/under bet on Barkley’s finish?
A: Caesars set a number (63.5). Bettors can wager whether Barkley will finish in a better spot (under 63.5) or worse spot (over 63.5) than that. Most bettors think he’ll finish worse.

Q5: Has Barkley been improving at golf?
A: Yes! He just had his two best career performances at this event, finished a career-best 58th in 2024, and lost weight. Smoltz says he’s motivated and raising his own bar each year.