Houston Weather This Weekend: Simple Explain-The-Rain Forecast

Fig: Live Houston-area radar. (FOX 26 Houston)

HOUSTON – Think of the Gulf of Mexico as a giant bathtub. Right now, extra “steam” (moisture) from that bathtub is blowing into our area for the weekend. That means we’ll see more clouds and a bigger chance of rain.

Tropical Moisture Moves In

A weather person (meteorologist) at FOX 26, Allison Gargaro, tells us that wet air from the tropics is arriving. Here’s what that means for your Saturday in plain kid-language:

• Scattered showers = rain that falls in some neighborhoods but not everywhere at the same time (like a sprinkler that moves around).
• Isolated thunderstorms = a few storms with lightning and loud thunder that pop up in just a couple of spots.

Timeline of the Wet Weather (Numbered Steps)

1. Late Saturday morning – Scattered showers start moving into Houston.
2. Saturday afternoon – Those showers may turn into isolated thunderstorms in some places.
3. Sunday through early next week – The showers and storms hang around, bringing a chance of street flooding.

Video Note: There is a “Houston weather: July 11 morning forecast” video by FOX 26 meteorologist Allison Gargaro. She explains that the showers and storms stick around through early next week and could cause street flooding. You can watch it on the FOX 26 Houston website for the full visual details.

Flood Threat Increases

Because we keep getting rounds of rain and thunderstorms through Tuesday, water on the roads (street flooding) could happen.

• The rain won’t fall every single minute like a waterfall.
• But repeated downpours (heavy rain that comes again and again over the same area) could flood streets locally.

Here’s the risk level the computer models are showing:

• Sunday: 1 out of 4 risk of street flooding (lowish, but still possible).
• Monday: 2 out of 4 risk – and models say Monday is the highest risk for heavy rain.
• Tuesday: Showers and storms continue, so keep caution.

Image: FOX 26 Houston flood-risk graphic.

Image: FOX 26 Houston further forecast graphic.

Important Callout: Monday’s flood risk (2 out of 4) is double Sunday’s (1 out of 4). That means Monday is the day to be extra careful if you’re driving or walking near low-lying streets.

Tropics Quiet for Now

You might wonder: “Are hurricanes coming?” Right now, the answer is no, and here is why in simple terms:

• El Niño – A natural pattern where a part of the Pacific Ocean gets warmer, which changes winds around the world.
• Saharan dust – Tiny dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa that travels across the ocean; it’s like dry powder that stops storms from breathing.
• Wind shear – Winds that blow at different speeds or directions up high, acting like scissors that cut storms apart.
• Dry, dusty air – Storms need moist air to grow; this air is too thirsty.

All these things make it very hard for a tropical system (a spinning ocean storm like a hurricane) to form.

The National Hurricane Center says the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of America will stay quiet for the next seven days.

Stay Alert: Even though things are calm, the peak of hurricane season is September 10, and it doesn’t end until November 30. So we must keep an eye on the tropics later.

Houston 7 Day Forecast

Below is the seven-day outlook graphic provided by FOX 26 Houston. It sums up the rainy pattern and temperatures for the week.

Image: Houston 7-day forecast from FOX 26 Houston.

Summary

• Extra moisture from the Gulf brings more clouds and higher rain chances this weekend.
• Scattered showers start late Saturday morning, with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.
• Rain and storms linger through early next week, with the biggest flood risk on Monday (2 out of 4).
• Street flooding is possible because of repeated heavy downpours, not constant rain.
• The tropics are quiet due to El Niño, Saharan dust, wind shear, and dry air, but hurricane season peaks Sept 10 and ends Nov 30.
• All this information comes from FOX 26 meteorologist Allison Gargaro.

FAQ

Q1: What does “scattered showers” mean in kid words?
A: It means rain will fall in some places like patchy sprinkles, not everywhere at once. You might see blue sky while your friend a few miles away gets wet.

Q2: Why can there be street flooding if it isn’t raining all day?
A: Because the same area can get hit by heavy rain multiple times. Imagine pouring a cup of water on the sidewalk, then another, then another—eventually the water pools and can’t drain fast enough.

Q3: What is El Niño and why does it keep hurricanes away?
A: El Niño is a natural warming of part of the Pacific Ocean. It changes global wind patterns, helping create “wind shear” that tears apart baby storms before they become hurricanes.

Q4: When is the real dangerous time for hurricanes?
A: The peak is September 10, and the whole season runs until the end of November. Right now (July) is quiet, but that can change.

Q5: Who gave this weather report?
A: The facts come from FOX 26 Houston meteorologist Allison Gargaro, who studied the radar and computer models to write this forecast.