A Possible Super Hot Heat Wave Might Be Coming: Explained Simply

What’s the Big News?

A weather account called MeteoBadajoz posted on social media:

“This is brutal. The main weather models are hinting at a possible extraordinary heat wave next week with maximum temperatures of +45 °C and even other values I dare not mention.”

In the last few days, bad weather news just keeps piling up.

Why Are Experts Paying Attention?

• Spain’s official weather agency (AEMET) published a weekly forecast that pointed to temperatures above normal for next week.
• At first, the computer “models” (smart programs that guess the weather) had very different guesses. But now those differences are shrinking.
• That means what was just a “maybe” is turning into a “very likely” scenario.

Important: One expert said: “For now, we should wait, but the insistence [of the models] is such that it’s starting to be very possible.” So we’re not 100 % sure yet, but the signs are strong.

What Do We Know and What Don’t We Know?

What we know

• According to meteorologist Roberto Granda, we already know that:
  • Temperatures of 38–40 °C will return in many areas.
  • The “heat‑wave thresholds” (the official lines that say “this is dangerously hot”) will be comfortably surpassed.
• Two major models both hint we’re in trouble, even if they disagree on shape:
  • The American GFS model sees a widespread and very intense heat wave.
  • The European model concentrates extreme heat in the eastern half of the Iberian Peninsula.
  • Either way, it looks like the region will be hit.

What we don’t know

• The exact temperature it will reach.
• Precisely which spots will be affected.
• How many days it will last.

[!IMPORTANT]
Even with those unknowns, the basic fact that many places will exceed 38–40 °C and officially be a heat wave is already solid.

What Could Happen If the Forecast Comes True?

If the hot event happens as predicted, it would land on a country (and continent) that already had a wild summer:

• It would be the third heat wave in just one month.
• The Mediterranean Sea is at 26.63 °C, which is 2.6 degrees above what’s normal.
• Last June was the second warmest since 1961.
• Sadly, according to health estimates (MoMo, from the Carlos III Health Institute), there have been about 1,682 deaths linked to heat since May 1. Around 500 of those happened in just five days during the second heat wave.

But Wait, Didn’t They Say It Would Get Cooler?

Just a week ago, the internet was full of maps promising “the end of the heat.” Experts (including the source of this article) told people to take those maps with a grain of salt.

• The lesson: you cannot confuse a 15‑day “maybe” map with an actual forecast.
• Now we see that caution was right—the heat is still here.

What Happens Next?

Here’s the simple timeline:

1. Wait for confirmation. In the next few days, the uncertainties will fade as models agree more.
2. Watch for official warnings. In past heat waves, special alerts were issued about four days before the event.
3. Brace yourself. No matter what, this summer is shaping up to be really, really bad.

Summary

A possible extraordinary heat wave with highs possibly above 45 °C may hit the Iberian Peninsula next week. While we don’t know exact details, we know temperatures will likely surpass 38–40 °C and official heat‑wave limits. This would be the third heat wave in a month, adding to already record‑warm seas and many heat‑related deaths. Long‑range “cooling” maps from last week were misleading. We’ll get clearer answers in the coming days, but the summer looks harsh.

FAQ

1. What is a “heat wave”?
Imagine several days in a row where it’s so hot that it feels dangerous and unusual for the season. Scientists set “thresholds” (like score lines) to call it officially.

2. Why do the American and European models disagree?
Weather models are like two different kids guessing the future using different math. The American (GFS) thinks the whole area will bake, while the European thinks only the east will get the worst. Both agree it will be hot, just not on the exact shape.

3. What is MoMo?
MoMo is a system from Spain’s health institute that counts how many extra deaths happen because of things like extreme heat. It estimated over 1,600 heat‑linked deaths this season.

4. Should I believe maps that say “cold is coming” weeks ahead?
Not really. Those far‑away maps are guesses with huge uncertainty. As we saw, a week ago they promised relief, but now a big heat wave is likely. Always wait for short‑term forecasts.

5. What should I do now?
The original report doesn’t give safety steps, but the key takeaway is: stay tuned to official weather alerts in the next few days and take the heat seriously.