5 Must-Know Moves Before Monday’s Opening Bell
CNBC Morning Squawk: Your Simple Guide to This Week’s Big Market Moves
Everything you need to know to start your trading week — explained like you’re five.
Quick Summary (The TL;DR)
This week’s newsletter covers five major stories: Iran nuclear talks stalling, Warren Buffett’s successor buying stocks again, President Trump’s foreign real estate earnings, AI safety concerns in Congress, and Shein’s IPO troubles. Plus, a calendar of key earnings and economic reports coming up.
1. Iran & the Strait of Hormuz: "Scared Strait"
What Happened?
Iran said "no thanks" to direct talks with the U.S. about reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a super important waterway where about 20% of the world’s oil passes through.
The Back-and-Forth
- Iran’s demands: Lift naval blockade, remove sanctions, pull U.S. troops from the region
- President Trump’s response: "Only semi-negotiating" — prefers to wait for economic pressure to build on Iran
- Previous optimism: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a deal was "imminent" last week
Why Markets Didn’t Panic
Important: Even though no deal happened, stocks still had their best two-week streak since April! Markets seem to be betting that talk of a deal is good enough for now — or that the economy is strong enough to handle the uncertainty.
2. Berkshire Hathaway: "Abel to Buy"
The Big News
Greg Abel (Warren Buffett’s hand-picked successor) finally started spending Berkshire’s massive cash pile.
By the Numbers
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Operating Earnings | ↑ 16% (Q2 2026) |
| Stock Buying | $20 billion net purchases (first time in 14 quarters!) |
| Stock Buybacks | $4.5 billion (more than last quarter, but less than expected) |
What Drove the Profits?
- Energy business doing great
- Railroad (BNSF) shipping lots of stuff
- Manufacturing humming along
- Insurance was a bit soft
Kid-Friendly Analogy: Imagine Berkshire is a giant piggy bank that sat closed for 3.5 years. Greg Abel just opened it and started buying toys (stocks) again!
3. Trump’s Foreign Real Estate: "Trump Towers"
The Eye-Popping Number
~$60 million from foreign licensing deals in 2025 — nearly 10x more than 2023!
Where’s the Money From?
- ~65% from Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, etc.)
- Rest from other international projects
The Controversy
Some developers paying for the "Trump name" were also seeking U.S. government approvals or investments at the same time.
What Watchdogs Say
Concern: These deals "blur the line" between Trump’s government job and private business.
Official Response
White House: "The only special interest directing the President is the best interest of the American people."
CNBC: Found no evidence licensing deals swayed White House decisions.
4. AI Safety: "Saving Face"
What’s Happening?
House Democrats (led by Rep. Greg Casar of Texas) want AI CEOs like Sam Altman (OpenAI) and Dario Amodei (Anthropic) to testify before Congress.
Why Now?
A string of recent hacking incidents involving AI systems has lawmakers worried.
The Warning
Rep. Casar’s letter: "Congress has completely failed to respond to the threats posed by AI development." Recent hacks "may be the canary in the coal mine" if AI grows without proper rules.
"Canary in the coal mine" = An early warning sign of bigger danger ahead (miners used to bring canaries into mines — if the bird died, toxic gas was present).
5. Shein’s IPO: "Fabric Tear"
The Problem
Fast-fashion giant Shein is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO, but tariffs are ripping holes in its business model.
The Damage So Far
- U.S. sales dropped 14% in Q1 vs. last year
- Reason: Shein raised prices to cover new tariffs → customers bought less
More Trouble Coming
Europe (Shein’s BIGGEST market) might be next — the EU just changed duty-free shipping rules that helped Shein keep prices low.
This Week’s Must-Watch Calendar
| Day | What’s Happening |
|---|---|
| Tuesday | Earnings before market open: On Holding (ONON) Earnings after close: Cava Group (CAVA), CoreWeave (CRWV), Super Micro (SMCI) |
| Wednesday | Earnings after close: Cerebras (CBRS) July Consumer Price Index (CPI) — inflation report! |
| Thursday | July Producer Price Index (PPI) — wholesale inflation! |
| Friday | July Retail Sales — are consumers still spending? |
Key Takeaways (The "So What?")
- Geopolitics ≠ Market Panic — Stocks can rise even when Iran talks fail
- Cash Deployment Matters — Berkshire buying again = confidence signal from Buffett’s heir
- Conflicts of Interest Are Tricky — Legal ≠ always looks good politically
- AI Regulation Is Coming — Hacks = pressure on Congress to act
- Tariffs Change Business Models — Even digital-native companies like Shein aren’t immune
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
Q1: What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter?
A: It’s a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. About 1/5 of the world’s oil passes through it. If it closes, gas prices everywhere jump up.
Q2: Who is Greg Abel and why should I care?
A: He’s Warren Buffett’s chosen successor to run Berkshire Hathaway. When he starts spending Berkshire’s $300B+ cash pile, Wall Street pays attention — it’s like the "smart money" making a move.
Q3: Is it illegal for a president to earn foreign licensing money?
A: Not necessarily — but the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution limits foreign gifts/payments to presidents. The key question is whether any official actions were influenced (CNBC found no evidence of this).
Q4: What does "canary in the coal mine" mean for AI?
A: It means the recent AI hacks might be early warnings of much bigger security problems if AI systems keep getting more powerful without safety rules.
Q5: How do tariffs hurt a company like Shein?
A: Shein’s model = super cheap clothes shipped directly from China. Tariffs = taxes on those imports. Shein either raises prices (loses customers) or eats the cost (loses profit). They chose higher prices → sales dropped.
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Contributors: Garrett Downs, Kevin Breuninger, Azhar Sukri, Tanaya Macheel, Sean Conlon, Yun Li, Alex Crippen, Luke Fountain, Megan Cassella, Gabrielle Fonrouge. Edited by Josephine Rozzelle.
